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|Section 1: Introduction to REthink|
Welcome from NAR 2013 President Gary Thomas
Welcome from the NAR Strategic Planning Cmtg.
Think...and then REThink
|Section 2: Creating Our Future|
YOUR INPUT - Question 1
The State of Real Estate Video
|Lecture 7||1 page|
|Statistics on the State of Real Estate Today|
Why the scenarios were created
Preview to the Scenario Framework Video
The Scenario Framework and how the scenarios interact are a critical part of understanding the REthink Journey.
|Section 3: Ostrich Scenario - Industry Scenario 1|
Preview to Ostrich Video - Motion Graphic
•Slower, incremental changes especially at the association level
•Driven by institutional inertia, political gridlock, industry fragmentation, and slower pace of housing market recovery
Ostrich - Read more on the scenario
Preview to Ostrich Video - Actor
Ostrich - Evidence portrayed by Actors
YOUR INPUT - Question 2
|Section 4: Beauty and the Beast Scenario - Industry Scenario 2|
Preview to Beauty and the Beast Video - Motion Graphic
•Big shifts in real estate value proposition, led by select industry players
• Collaborative effort driven by big data opportunity, external threats, and need for more future-facing consumer-centric models
“Change is disturbing when done to us, exhilarating when done by us.” –Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Harvard Business School
Most people didn’t think it was possible. Getting key players to collaboratively re-shape the real estate industry was just too difficult. Too many barriers were in the way, from divergent interests to legal, institutional, and political issues. And, as many argued, this had been tried before with unclear or unsuccessful results.
This time, however, was different. Defying conventional wisdom, this was a future where the real estate industry was successful in a path-breaking effort that redefined the industry’s value proposition. So what happened and why?
Beauty And The Beast - Read more on the Scenario
Preview to Beauty and the Beast Video - Actor
Beauty And The Beast - Evidence portrayed by Actors
YOUR INPUT - Question 3
|Section 5: Jungle Scenario - Industry Scenario 3|
Preview to Jungle Video - Motion Graphic
•Rapid, game-changing shifts to industry and business environment
•Driven by new entrants, new politics, shifting values, and external forces like rising energy prices
“It’s not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.” –Charles Darwin
This is a volatile yet innovative world full of game-changers and power-shifts, new risks and opportunities, new winners and losers. For real estate, a tectonic shift reshapes the industry landscape, suddenly and decisively, as new players entered the market with new models for housing and home ownership, value propositions better attuned to consumer needs during this time of uncertainty. A previously unthinkable world just a few years ago, how did this happen?
Jungle - Read more on the Scenario
Preview to Jungle Video - Actor
Jungle - Evidence portrayed by Actors
YOUR INPUT - Question 4
YOUR INPUT - Question 5
YOUR INPUT - Question 6
|Section 6: The American Dream Recaptured - Societial Scenario 4|
Preview to American Dream Recaptured Video - Motion Graphic
Home ownership still central to American society
•Driven by current consumption and production patterns continued, younger gen and immigrants entering the market, a sustainable US economy, and manageable energy prices
• Real estate industry and role of agents redefined, but more evolutionary shifts— a combination of Jungle and Beauty & the Beast
After a period of uncertainty, this is a future where the American dream is recaptured and renewed with a 21st century twist— with home ownership still an essential tenant to this national narrative. While many national and geo-political challenges remain, America gets its groove back within this ten-year period. The country’s ability to innovate, and its role as the R&D center of the world, continued to provide a sustainable comparative advantage over other nations. Even though China was trying to catch up, pouring billions into pure research, still missing was the cultural and institutional ability to consistently transfer these ideas into economic opportunities, an unparalleled capacity made famous by “creative clusters” like Silicon Valley which continued to churn out game-changing companies like Apple, Google and Facebook. And since these knowledge-intensive industries created high levels of wealth and productivity, this promise of prosperity continued to attract immigrants and talent from around the world to the US.
The American Dream Recaptured - Read more on the scenario
Preview to American Dream Recaptured Video - Actor
The American Dream Recaptured - Evidence by Actors
YOUR INPUT - Question 7
|Section 7: The New American Dream - Societial Scenario 5|
Preview to The New American Dream Video - Motion Graphic
•Alongside traditional home ownership, the preference of access to housing over ownership becoming mainstream; multiple models and concepts of “home” emerge
•Driven by major shifts in social values, consumers’ financial constraints, policy choices (carbon tax), impact of high energy prices and resource scarcities on housing and the built environment
• Real estate industry and role of agents significantly redefined to include broader social functions as “community connectors” and experts in sustainable/ energy efficient lifestyle options
Of all the scenarios, this future is the most challenging to our current imaginations and assumptions about the American Dream—and thus what it might mean to be a real estate agent in the 21st century. Indeed, looking back, it was very hard to see a world where home ownership wasn’t one of the most important aspirations within the American experience. But what if the American Dream got redefined? What would that look like?
The New American Dream - Read more on the scenario
Preview to The New American Dream Video - Actor
The New American Dream - Evidence Portrayed by Actors
YOUR INPUT - Question 8
|Section 8: Strategic Implications for NAR, the Industry and You!|
YOUR INPUT - Question 9
Be one of the Crazies
YOUR INPUT - Question 10
YOUR INPUT - Question 11
|Section 9: Closing and Thank You|
Closing from NAR President-Elect Steve Brown
The National Association of REALTORS ® Strategic Planning Committee personally invites you to engage in a strategic conversation about the future of real estate.
•If you have a creative mindset....