Business strategy: how to win in an unpredictable world

Powerful strategy insights from chaos theory and behavioural economics, to make your business antifragile.
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  • Lectures 17
  • Contents Video: 1.5 hours
    Other: 1 hour
  • Skill Level All Levels
  • Languages English
  • Includes Lifetime access
    30 day money back guarantee!
    Available on iOS and Android
    Certificate of Completion
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About This Course

Published 12/2013 English

Course Description

'Management expertise has become the creation and control of constants, uniformity, and efficiency, while the need has become the understanding and coordination of variability, complexity, and effectiveness' - Dee Hock, Birth of the Chaordic Age

How can you plan and strategize for the future, when you don't know what it holds? The complexity and unpredictability of the modern world means that traditional 'business planning' is of limited value. Rather, leaders are realizing that they must learn how to make smart decisions in the face of complexity, and to focus on becoming antifragile rather than fragile. The study of chaos and chaordic systems has revealed powerful insights into how to 'win' from unpredictable environments, whilst behavioural economics is revealing how we can best make decisions under stress. In summary, this course will teach you how to develop and employ a business strategy that will 'win', whatever the future holds.

The course is divided into two sections; the first explains core concepts and distinctions ('chaos'; 'chaordic systems'; 'antifragility', 'emergence', etc). The second section is practical, applying principles in depth to organizational strategy. The course includes video lectures and written materials and will take between 1 week (full-time) and 7 weeks (part-time) to complete.

This course is highly recommended for entrepreneurs, company directors, strategists, MBA students, and other organizational leaders. The material contained in this course is a synthesis of organizational leadership and management theory; chaos and chaordic systems theory; non-linear strategy; and behavioural economics.

You will receive a certificate upon completion of this course.

What are the requirements?

  • A high level of English literacy is assumed in this course.
  • A familiarity with common business and strategy terms is assumed in this course.

What am I going to get from this course?

  • By the end of the course, you will understand in detail the principles of non-linear strategy and be able to devise an organizational strategy for any unpredictable environment.
  • In this course, you will learn the concepts of linearity; non-linearity; fragility; and anti-fragility.
  • In this course, you will learn the characteristics of emergent and chaordic systems, and how to develop strategy that succeeds in such environments.
  • In this course, you will learn the nature of risk and uncertainty, how to assess risk profiles, and strategies for dispersing risk.

What is the target audience?

  • This course is intended for motivated individuals or groups with a strong interest, experience, or aptitude for business and leadership.

What you get with this course?

Not for you? No problem.
30 day money back guarantee.

Forever yours.
Lifetime access.

Learn on the go.
Desktop, iOS and Android.

Get rewarded.
Certificate of completion.


Section 1: Introduction and key concepts

How to think about strategy: a brief overview of what we'll be covering in this course.


Understanding the concepts of linearity and non-linearity is absolutely crucial to business success, especially in unpredictable and complex contexts. In this lecture, author Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains the key principles and distinctions.


How is a position different from a plan? Why will a position win amidst change and complexity, and why will a plan fail? This crucial distinction is explained in this lecture.


No one wants to build a fragile business. What's the opposite? An antifragile business; one which actually benefits from change and unexpected events. Watch this talk to understand the core concepts of antifragility, which will be built upon in the practical section of this course (section 2). The categories of fragile - robust - antifragile are based upon how something handles disorder. Also introduces the concepts of concavity (linked with fragility) and convexity (linked with antifragility).


Chaos, chaos theory and chaordic systems may sound like daunting terms, but by the end of this lecture you'll understand these unusually powerful insights and be ready to apply them in an organisational context.

A great example of strategy and culture (netflix)
Section 2: How to win in an unpredictable world

This audio lecture gives an overview of the following practical section of this course. We strongly recommend that you only take this lecture and the following lectures once you have covered the theory and grasped the principles in lectures 1-5.


'When you can't fail, you can only win'. This practical lecture explains how to remove downsides and unacceptable outcomes in your corporate strategy.


Margin provides a buffer/safety zone against unexpected negative events, while also providing readily available resources to pounce on unexpected positive events. Margin is vital to build into strategy - here's how.


Aggregated risk loses, dispersed risk wins. Here's how to structure your organisational strategy so that you benefit from risk and failure - without being harmed by it.


Curiosity and cross-pollination will only ever benefit you; learning how to integrate them into your organisational strategy and culture is the goal of this lecture.


An option gives you an asymmetric risk profile: it gives you the right, but not the obligation - meaning that you can use the right when it helps you win, and do nothing when it would make you lose. Options are widely understood in the world of investment; this lecture teaches you how to think in terms of options within your business strategy.


This audio lecture gives an overview of the meta-strategy for developing any antifragile strategy. It covers the barbell strategy; that is, a strategy which is both hyperconservative (avoiding any downside) and hyperaggressive (open to upside) at the same time, and explains the core components of developing a barbell strategy suited to any context.


This lecture presents a simple, memorable process for developing an antifragile strategy for nearly anything. Be sure to listen to the audio, 'Antifragile meta-strategy' first.


This lecture explains how to harness the power of our loss-aversion cognitive bias to generate powerful responses to difficulty and failure - vital to an antifragile organisation.


This lecture gives a worked example of how to apply antifragility concepts to real-life strategy, by applying the antifragile 'barbell strategy' (covered earlier in the course) to starting a business. Learn how to construct a start-up strategy that thrives and benefits on unpredictability, and which benefits even when no one really knows what's going on.


It's time to make your blueprint for how to win in an unpredictable world.

This concluding lecture draws together the entire practical section of this course (section 2), to help you generate your own antifragile business strategy - your own strategy to help your organisation win in an unpredictable world. Complete the lecture before downloading and completing the blueprint file.

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Instructor Biography

Best Thought Ltd., Management consultants

A UK-based management consultancy, Best Thought Ltd., is uniquely positioned to teach a diverse methodology drawn from chaos theory, non-linear strategy, behavioural economics, productivity, organisational leadership, ethics, jazz improvisation (one of our consultants holds the ALCM diploma in jazz piano) and best-practice management. We have a passion for helping organisations become twice as simple and twice as smart.

We bring a tri-sector perspective to the table, having worked within charitable, public, and private sectors in the past (including leading a team of researchers, engineers, and designers to produce a neurosurgical device prototype). The Best Thought team will give you experienced coaching and engaging teaching. Let's get started!

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