Need to predict the future?
4.0 (14 ratings)
Course Ratings are calculated from individual students’ ratings and a variety of other signals, like age of rating and reliability, to ensure that they reflect course quality fairly and accurately.
126 students enrolled

Need to predict the future?

Master the fundamentals of sales forecasting, and help your company improve forecast accuracy.
4.0 (14 ratings)
Course Ratings are calculated from individual students’ ratings and a variety of other signals, like age of rating and reliability, to ensure that they reflect course quality fairly and accurately.
126 students enrolled
Last updated 10/2015
English
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Current price: $20.99 Original price: $29.99 Discount: 30% off
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This course includes
  • 1 hour on-demand video
  • 6 downloadable resources
  • Full lifetime access
  • Access on mobile and TV
  • Certificate of Completion
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What you'll learn
  • Goal: Improve sales forecast accuracy, resulting in higher sales (fewer stock-outs) and lower inventory holding costs (better inventory turnover)
  • Objective 1: Apply exponential smoothing to your sales data
  • Objective 2: Test various forecasting methods and settings to find the best combination
  • Objective 3: Measure your forecasting accuracy
Requirements
  • Comfort with basic Excel spreadsheets
  • Access to exponential smoothing software, or the ability to download and install a free exponential smoothing software package
Description

In about one hour you can learn to:

  1. Use exponential smoothing, the most popular forecasting method.
  2. Test your forecasts before putting the company (or your reputation) at risk.
  3. Assess whether your forecasts are adding value.

Most managers involved in forecasting are missing one or more skills in basic forecasting. We boil it down to five steps, and show you how to master each one.

This course is all about doing. You look over our shoulders and view the computer screen as we forecast sales for multiple products and industries.

Every forecaster should be able to do exponential smoothing. It is by far the most popular forecasting approach among experienced forecasters.

One of the biggest leaps you can make as a forecaster is in accuracy measurement. We show you the best way, and we demonstrate it throughout the course.

Forecasting software works, so you don't need to understand detailed forecasting formulas. Instead, we focus on how to use forecasting software wisely.

We are confident that mastery of the basic concepts provided in this course will significantly increase your forecast accuracy. The result: fewer stock-outs, higher sales, and lower inventory costs.

Included in this course:

  • 9 lectures
  • 6 Excel workbooks (actual spreadsheets from lectures)

We tap into the very latest thinking on forecasting. But rather than bore you with our technical mastery of the subject, we focus on simplicity and practicality. Only the essential ingredients of forecasting excellence are presented. And we do so with passion.

We hope you enjoy the course. Good luck and good forecasting!

Who this course is for:
  • Individuals involved in sales or demand forecasting
  • Finance managers
  • Product managers
  • Sales managers
  • Sales operations
  • Marketing managers
  • Salespeople
Course content
Expand 9 lectures 01:10:42
+ Lectures
9 lectures 01:10:43

In the Introduction I briefly describe myself and the course. I am the author of numerous books and articles. My most recent book is Sales Forecasting: A Practical Guide (available at Amazon). This course is designed for busy managers who need to learn the fundamentals of sales forecasting.

Preview 03:41

In the Background chapter I talk about how sales forecasting differs from other types of forecasting. Then I show how the learning curve applies to sales forecasting and talk about how this course was designed to avoid complex formulas. I close the chapter by discussing the forecasting attitude and give you an exercise to stretch your thinking.

Preview 06:04

In this chapter I discuss the first and second most common mistakes made by rookie forecasters. Then I describe how to set up a test using historical sales data, and demonstrate the process with an example.

Testing
06:08

The third step on the forecasting learning curve is to avoid linear extensions. In this chapter I review the linear extension, with the intention of dissuading you from using it. I describe MASE, or the best way to measure forecast error. These concepts are demonstrated using the online banking example. Then I conclude with a discussion of why the linear extension is such a poor choice for sales forecasting.

Linear Extension
07:19

This chapter describes the factors that make exponential smoothing accurate. Then we demonstrate its use with the online banking company.

Exponential Smoothing
09:12

In this chapter I describe how to detect potential data distortions, the data cleaning process, and how to check whether the effort was useful from a forecasting perspective.

Data Cleaning
07:05

In this chapter, I describe why multiple sales forecasts are common, and provide some simple techniques for managing them. Once this groundwork is laid, I describe the process and guidelines for creating a future forecast and assessing its accuracy.

Multiple Forecasts
09:48

The last chapter summarizes the major points in a process I call Five-Step Forecasting: Plot, Divide, Test, Assess, and Apply.It is possible to make the process more complex, but I can’t recommend a simpler one. These steps form the minimum requirements of a sound sales forecasting process.

Five-Step Forecasting
10:28