Market Sizing & Forecasting: Build a Defensible Forecast

WHY IS THIS COURSE IMPORTANT?

How big is the market—and how much of it can you realistically capture?

Those are two of the most important questions behind any new product, service, or business opportunity. Yet market forecasts are often built on assumptions that are difficult to explain or defend.

This course takes a practical, analytical approach. You'll learn how to research a market, estimate its size, identify the portion you can realistically address, and develop forecasts based on data and clearly defined assumptions.

Along the way, you'll learn how to:

• Find useful market data from credible sources

• Use primary and secondary market research

• Organize and evaluate the data you collect

• Segment a market to better understand the real opportunity

• Distinguish the total market from the market you can realistically address

• Use trendlines to forecast from historical data

• Apply the ATAR and Bass models to new-product forecasting

• Understand technology adoption using Crossing the Chasm and the Hype Cycle

• Use CRM and sales-pipeline information to forecast future business

• Recognize the assumptions and limitations behind any forecast

• Use the included Excel tools to explore several forecasting techniques

WHO IS THIS COURSE FOR?

This course is designed for product managers, marketers, business-development professionals, entrepreneurs, analysts, consultants, and managers who need to evaluate markets, develop business plans, launch new products or services, or forecast future sales.

WHY LEARN THIS FROM ME?

I've spent more than 35 years in business, moving from engineering to marketing leadership and eventually serving as president of a healthcare IT company. I've also taught MBA students for many years, where market sizing and forecasting was one of my favorite subjects to teach.

My teaching style is very pragmatic. I assume you may be new to the subject, start with the fundamentals, and build from there. Because some forecasting concepts can become complicated quickly, I use practical examples—both healthcare and non-healthcare—to make them easier to understand and apply.

My approach to market sizing and forecasting isn't theoretical. It's based on building forecasts, challenging assumptions, and developing projections that could be explained and defended to management.

My objective isn't to turn you into a forecasting expert. It's to give you practical tools and approaches you can use to answer four important questions:

What do we know? What don't we know? What assumptions are we making? And can we defend them?

By the end of the course, you'll have a practical set of tools for turning market information and business assumptions into forecasts you can explain—and defend.