• This is a complete trend following strategy for stocks.
• Incredible historical performance with low drawdown.
• All course updates completely free and always will be.
• Course optimised for mobile, tablet, and desktop. System code included.
“Trend following methods have been the simplest, most successful trading methods for decades" – Perry J Kaufmann
When it comes to beating the stock market, there are few strategies that can offer such consistent returns as the strategy of trend following.
Trend followers made a killing in 2008, when the whole financial system was in meltdown and they made millions in 2014, just when the sceptics were saying the strategy was dead. And some of the best trend following funds have been in operation for over 40 years, building up funds with billions of dollars in assets.
To be sure, most big trend following funds operate in the realm of managed futures but there is significant evidence that trend following can be applied just as successfully to stocks.
On this course, you will learn the full rules to an original trend following strategy that can be used in the stock market. Rules that anyone can master and put into practice with just a couple of hours work a week.
Who am I?
My name's Joe Marwood and I'm a trader originally from London, England. I've been trading trend following systems on stocks for years and over the next couple of hours, I will build and then disclose this complete trend following strategy for stocks that has been rigorously tested on historical stock market data.
I go through the fundamentals of trend following, the theory, the secrets, and the steps necessary to build a robust and reliable trend trading strategy.
I also record live system back-tests so you can see the real, unaltered, system results and the system equity curve for yourself.
This is a strategy that is simple enough for any investor to understand yet sophisticated enough to show incredible annual returns versus the benchmark. It's a strategy that has been able to capture some huge multi-week trends in some of the best stocks on the market. And this strategy can be applied to other global stock markets too.
The trend following for stocks strategy is suitable for:
• Full-time and part-time traders.
• Investors seeking to diversify their existing portfolios.
• Traders and investors looking to passively build wealth and income.
• Those seeking alternate investment strategies.
As you may have guessed, this is not another get rich quick scheme or day trading system with a high failure rate. Rather, this is a straightforward and mechanical approach to following trends in stocks designed to compound your wealth and beat the market.
The strategy can be used on it's own or as part of a fully diversified investment portfolio.
Stop following the news and start following the trend today.
There is no such thing as 'the trend'. Trend followers must take a systematic approach.
The recent performance of famous trend followers has been good.
This course comes with closed captions so you can follow along to every word.
Trend followers make their money by trading large, multi-month moves in stocks and futures. This is a collection of some of the biggest market bubbles and crashes in history.
Does trend following work on stocks? What are the difference between managed futures and trading stocks?
We are following trends in stocks, is this momentum or trend following?
What are the main criticisms of trend following strategies?
30 rules to live by when following trends in the stock market.
Before we build the trading system let's be clear what our goals are.
We will be using a couple of tools for system development and these are discussed in this lecture.
Having accurate and reliable data is essential when building a trend following system.
What are the benefits of optimisation and walk forward analysis and how will we approach these concepts?
Portfolio diversification and compounding will help us create a winning system.
The objective function is how we measure the trading system so we can compare it against other systems and make improvements.
Working out the trend following buy rules for our strategy.
Working out the trend following sell rules for our strategy.
Working out our risk and position sizing.
Adding a market timing filter to our strategy.
The trend following strategy for stocks written in plain language.
The loose version gives more trades and sometimes greater returns, but at the expense of greater drawdowns. The strict version builds slowly and has smaller drawdowns but fewer trades.
The results of the trading system tested on a range of different stock universes.
Full summary of the trading system results
Run through of the top winning trades from the trend following system we've created.
Run through of the worst losing trades from the trend following system we've created.
Analysis of the system results by sector. Which sectors produced the best returns for our strategy?
Performance of the trading system and desirable portfolio size will depend on the starting equity.
Monte carlo analysis of our trend following system results.
Basic code for use without Premium Data Alpha Database
Amibroker code to use with the new Norgate data platform (NDU).
Code add-in to enable the Monte Carlo simulation. See the other lecture on Monte Carlo to see the results.
Clarification on the data we used.
Some additional Amibroker settings required to replicate the system results.
Learn how to trade the trading system in live markets.
Be aware of these extra considerations when trading the system live.
Some difficulties that face trend followers when trading stocks.
Joe B Marwood is a trader and investor specialising in financial trading and mechanical trading systems.
He began his career trading stock and bond futures for a prop trading firm in the UK and now works through his own private company.
How did you get started?
I started my career as a professional day trader for a UK-based prop firm where my principal products were the FTSE 100 future and German Bund.
Today I trade a portfolio of individual stocks and occasionally futures and I have a passion for building automated trading strategies and systems.
What is your trading style?
I use a mechanical strategy to trade on a largely end of day basis. I look at both fundamental and technical analysis and use strategies that are based on historical simulations. I often combine those strategies with my own experience and discretion to come up with trades that I believe are the most attractive on a risk/reward basis.
Mean reversion or trend following?
I have found that traditional trend following methods do not work as well as they once did. My methods are based on my own observations on the market whether they are based on momentum, trends, mean reversion or anything else.
Who taught you how to trade?
My mentor was a former head of trading at a well known German investment bank. I have also read and studied countless books, journals, and articles, and have spent many hours in the market. You can never stop learning.
Why did you make this course?
To educate others so that they don't make the same mistakes I made. Learning to trade can be a very expensive and drawn out process. As a trader, it is also extremely beneficial to have sources of side income as that takes the pressure off your own trading. Putting what I have learnt into a course also solidifies my own learning.
What are the secrets to successful trading?
First of all, you must have the passion to succeed. If you are in it only for the money you will have a very tough time and will be doomed to failure. You must also be comfortable with risk and be able to separate your emotions from the money. Having a system with a profitable expectancy is also crucial and for that you will likely need a strong ability with numbers.
Why do most traders fail?
Most traders start off under-capitalised and then chase unrealistic returns which results in them blowing their account after a couple of big losses. Most beginner traders do not realise the realities of trading which is why they have trouble sticking to trading plans and dealing with their emotions. Trading should be treated as a business.