The nature of our economic system changed in 1968 when the United States stopped backing dollars with gold.
In this new age of fiat money, credit growth drives economic growth, liquidity determines the direction of asset prices and the government controls both through aggressive policy intervention.
Macro Watch analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy with the goal of anticipating economic developments and their impact on the financial markets.
Richard Duncan, the course instructor, intends to publish four issues of Macro Watch a year. Each issue will contain original analysis pertaining to economic and financial developments as they unfold. Each issue will be sold separately.
Macro Watch Fourth Quarter 2013 is this first in this series. It is comprised of five lectures and is over one hour in length.
Lecture One considers the sources of the fundamental weakness in the US economy that have made Quantitative Easing necessary.
Lecture Two explains why credit growth is likely to remain too weak to drive economic growth over the next few years.
Lecture Three introduces the concept of Liquidity and looks at the impact that foreign-generated liquidity has on asset prices in the United States.
Lecture Four addresses Quantitative Easing, the second major source of Liquidity, and uses scenario analysis to estimate how much QE will be required in 2014 and 2015 to make the economy grow.
Lecture Five discusses the prospects for asset prices in light of the analysis presented in the preceding lectures.
Over the next three years, credit growth is likely to remain too weak to drive economic growth. This lecture explains why.
This lecture introduces the concept of Liquidity and looks at the impact that foreign-generated liquidity has on asset prices in the United States.
The second major source of Liquidity, Quantitative Easing, is discussed here. Scenario analysis is used to estimate how much QE will be required in 2014 and 2015 to make the economy grow.
This lecture discusses the prospects for asset prices in light of the analysis presented in the preceding lectures.
Note: Please read the attached Disclaimer.
Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003) explained why a worldwide economic calamity was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism (2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the crisis. It also outlined the policies necessary to permanently resolve it. His latest book, published in 2012, focuses specifically on the role that credit creation has played in this disaster. It's entitled The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy.
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. He is now chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management in Singapore.
Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio. He has published articles in The Financial Times, The Far East Economic Review, FinanceAsia and CFO Asia. He is also a well-known speaker whose audiences have included The World Economic Forum's East Asia Economic Summit in Singapore, EuroFinance Conferences in Miami and Copenhagen, The Chief Financial Officers' Roundtable in Shanghai, and the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul.
Richard studied literature an economics at Vanderbilt University (1983) and international finance at Babson College (1986); and, between the two, spent a year traveling around the world as a backpacker.