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Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification
Rating: 4.3 out of 5(1,809 ratings)
8,025 students

Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification

Predictive Intelligence Analysis
Created byRobert Folker
Last updated 7/2019
English

What you'll learn

  • Apply critical thinking skills during the analytic process
  • Demonstate the role of probabilities in predictive analysis
  • Create and use probability trees
  • Create and use utility trees and utility matrices
  • Create and use an advanced utility matrix
  • Understand how Bayes applies to intelligence predictions
  • Use Excel to apply Bayes to aid intelligence analysis

Course content

4 sections • 18 lectures • 2h 8m total length

  • Critical & Deliberate Thinking3:57
  • The Probability Tree, Pt 16:00

    The student will better understand the role of probabilities in the language of making intelligence estimates.

  • Safecracker Exercise
  • The Probability Tree, Pt 28:43

    The student will know how to apply the three rules (the events must be mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive, and probabilities of the branches must equal to 1) for constructing a probability tree.

  • Jelly Bean Exercise
  • The Probability Tree, Pt 39:09

    The student will be able to construct probability trees to structure and aid their analysis of several different problem sets.

  • The Role of Thinking & Probabilities

Requirements

  • Students must have successfully completed the Level 1 and Level 2 Intelligence Analyst Certification courses before enrolling in this course. It is preferred that students have a working knowledge of and access to MS Excel to complete this course.
  • A familiarity with and access to MS Excel is highly recommended but not required.

Description

The views expressed in this course are the instructor's alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.

This course builds on the Level 1 and Level 2 courses on Intelligence Analysis to teach the student how to think in probabilities and structure their analysis to produce predictive intelligence.  Upon completion of the course, the graduate will be able to use MS Excel to apply the Bayes Theorem to participate in forecasting tournaments and make specific intelligence predictions to prevent surprise.

Who this course is for:

  • This is an expert level course and is designed for an experienced intelligence analyst

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