Gold might be now on the eve of a major downfall, reflecting the final burst of a 10-year parabolic bull market. Following a collapse of gold prices in 2013, gold failed to return to its sustainable growth trajectory, which it demonstrated in 2009-2011 during the mania phase of the gold bubble development. For many individual traders, which prefer to trade strategically over the longer-term time horizons, the coming gold bubble burst may pose rather lucrative opportunities.
Back in 2011 I developed a long-term gold chart, showing the real (inflation-adjusted) gold price movement over the recent seven centuries expressed in Great Britain Pounds (GBP), which may give a perfect bird's eye view on the history of gold market development. In my free article on SeekingAlpha's web-site I explained my thoughts on the possible future gold price behaviour. These were the times of secular gold bull market proponents, who claimed this PM could reach $2000/oz, $5000/oz or even more in a matter of few years.
Using only basic historical analysis, I was able to put forward an idea that the gold bull market in 2011 was over and next year the gold prices will fall by 33%. Now I can conclude that that investment idea was perfectly valid, but ill-timed: the actual collapse of gold prices occurred only in 2013, but still, gold was never able to achieve prices higher than in 2011. In 2017 I updated my work and added to a solely historical analysis of gold price movement a combination of fundamental and technical factors influencing gold prices, which gave a much more accurate prediction of a possible future gold price direction.
After studying my new course you will be able to prepare youself to another 33% gold price decline and capitalize on the final gold bubble collapse.
► In my course you will find an exclusive information, which has never been published before and which is based on my own in-depth research and analysis rather than on a simple compilation of well-known facts and theories.
"Kudos for your thorough research, the presentation of an interesting angle, and a good delivery on the subject matter".
~ Jon Nadler, former Senior Analyst at Kitco Metals on my research findings.
Description of a calculation methodology behind our historical gold price analysis.
Historical analysis is a necessary and probably the most important component of our top-down research approach, when we gradually move from the larger to smaller timeframes.
This arcticle equips you with an integrated complex picture of what’s going on in the gold market from the long-term perspective. It helps you to assess a behavior of gold prices from the bird’s eye view and make some important conclusions, which go beyond the scope of a simple fundamental or technical analysis or even a combination of both.
One of the most important questions we should answer before moving to the other aspects of our top-down research approach is whether gold is in a bubble now. Using outcomes of our historical analysis, I will prove you that since 2000s gold is in a typical bubble.
Despite a wide range of factors, which can potentially affect the gold prices, actually there is only one factor, which moves gold prices - a relative performance of the US economy versus the rest of the world. The weaker the US compared to the others is, the higher the gold prices are.
A description of the methodology behind our macroeconomic analysis of the US economy and the rest of the world.
In this lecture we will analyze the current state of affairs in the US economy using macroeconomic factor analysis. We will cover the leading macroeconomic indicators, as well as coincident and lagging indicators and ultimately receive an objective comprehensive quantitative picture of the US economy.
In this lecture will will repeat the same approach as we used for the assessment of the US economy, but as applied to the rest of the world (global economy excluding the US).
Conclusions on the possible future gold price direction from the fundamental point of view.
A general description of the second gold bubble from the technical point of view along with an assessment of potential target level of the decline following the final gold bubble collapse.
This lecture will give you an evaluation of the optimal entry level into the gold market, from which you can build up your position size.
Theory of profit-taking level identification and building up your position size.
In this lecture you will study the application of an Excel calculator, which will give you an assessment of the optimal lot size based on the amount of your deposit, tolerable loss during the gold price downward movement, optimal factor by which you will multiply your lot size, and the total amount of profit you will receive upon gold achieving the target level of decline.
In this lecture I will explore potential force majeure factors, which can cancel our baseline scenario for gold price movement in 2017, and how to deal with them.
Dmitry is a trader, research analyst and forex trading coach with over seven years of experience trading financial markets. He developed many innovative approaches to forex trading, with a special focus on PM complex. In 2011 received a degree from the Higher School of Economics. Primary fields of interest include international monetary relations, currency trading and PM investing.