Some Student Reviews are:
"Good Course if you want to understand the various Exponential Smoothing methods of forecasting using excel...Thank you." (Jun-17)
"The course is excellent and very practical. In addition, the instructor is excellent and attentive. Very recommended course for anyone who wants to learn forecasting." (Apr-17)
"Overall it is great." (Apr-17)
"Very insightful!" (Mar-17)
Hi. Thanks for showing interest in this course!
With this course, you will learn how to FORECAST Anything with Excel. I'll show you step-by-step instructions for creating statistical FORECASTS applied to any Time Series, and thus, estimating your own results.
Many times, I found clients trying to FORECAST their own data but it's a difficult task. And not only that, they don't like to share their CONFIDENTIAL data to others! So, this course is the perfect answer for that.
You will learn how to FORECAST your own data using state-of-the-art statistical methods, but explained in a friendly way. I will also upload the Excel spreadsheets, so you can FORECAST your own data IMMEDIATELY.
With this course, you will also learn how to proficiently use Excel regarding variables, functions and graphs. In this course, we will cover:
» Preliminary Analysis
» Prepare Data for FORECASTS
» Create and Estimate FORECASTS
» Diagnose and Improve FORECASTS
» Show Results and Graphs
» Apply method to any other variable/data
The only thing you'll need for this course is your own data, which probably is confidential and don't want to share with others. The course will show you the rest!
You will also need a computer with Microsoft Excel 2016 installed (Home or Professional versions) or Microsoft Excel 365 version, because we will be using a few nice and easy new functions.
The course shows you everything you need to know in order to FORECAST your own key variables/data for better decision-making. Some of the benefits of FORECASTS are:
✓ Learn and improve from the past
✓ Remain and/or increase competitiveness
✓ Increase value by mitigating risks of uncertainty
✓ Decrease unnecessary costs, high inventories and/or unbalances
✓ Face spike in sales and keep customers happy, and much more!
As an added bonus, I will also leave all spreadsheets, so you can get to work and FORECAST immediately! You will get quick easy quizzes with detailed answers, so you can learn faster. In the end, you will be able to apply these methods in order to FORECAST any variable for your own purposes.
Lastly, you can post questions or doubts, and I’ll answer to you personally.
I hope you find this course as useful as I have creating it!
I’ll see you inside,
-M.A. Mauricio M.
This lesson presents how to approach this course, depending on your background and interests. From beginner to advanced students, you are all covered!
Understand all the benefits of FORECASTING!
Identify the available methods and the ones we'll be using in this course
Identify the requirements FORECASTS need in order to be statistical valid (which are not many, so you can use these methods for any data you have in the form of Time Series)
Understand the course's terminology for easier concepts and practices
The first step at assessing FORECASTS is to visualize the Time Series and get familiar with it, both from the technical and expert perspectives.
Identify Trend, if present in your Time Series in order to apply the correct Forecast Method.
Identify Seasonality, if present in your Time Series in order to apply the correct Forecast Method.
Choose the best Train and Test subsets out of your sample (Time Series). I will give you my rule of thumb!
Understand the difference between Confidence Intervals and Prediction Intervals (they are not the same!)
Among your FORECASTS models, determine which one has the "best" statistical criteria
Compute the Average FORECAST Method and understand its meaning as a simple benchmark model
Compute the Naive FORECAST Method and understand its meaning as simple yet very limited benchmark model
Compute the Drift FORECAST Method and understand its meaning as another simple benchmark model
Compute the SES as your first powerful FORECAST method
How to choose the Optimal SES for your data
Finally, compute the SES Forecast and its Forecast Interval for added precision
Compute the HES method as your second powerful FORECAST method
How to choose the Optimal HES for your data
Finally, compute the HES Forecast and its Forecast Interval for added precision
Compute the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing (Seasonal, ETS) as your third powerful FORECAST method
Compute the HWES Forecasting method all within Excel and using built-in functions!
Here, I give you additional tips and I also present a 2nd example for your maximum learning
Additional example of Powerful Forecasting method applied to Real World Data #1
As an early enrolled student, you get to decide what FORECASTING Example goes here. Let me know!
Install Excel Solver, it's easy as it's already in your Excel, you just need to activate it
Understand what is Solver and how it works as an iterative solution finding algorithm
Have a few hints and tis on using Excel Solver easily
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Mauricio Maroto holds a Master in Industrial Economics from Carlos III University in Madrid, Spain.
He has with extensive experience in Data Analysis and Visualization. He's proficient at Python, STATA and Microsoft Excel and he likes Machine Learning, Prediction, Optimization Methods and similar quantitative topics. He gained all experience through work, private consultancies and personal projects.
He blogs about Machine Learning, Energy, Technology and related topics at medium website.
He believes "Code is a fundamental skill" and "innovation brings progress to everyone". He loves teaching, passing knowledge and just making life easier.
Mauricio's other passions are his family, friends, his pets and he loves to play soccer, whether indoors or outdoors. He also goes out for a run on weekends (not lately). He also loves topics such as Entrepreneurship, Cryptocurrencies and Science.