The Roots of Geopolitical Risk: Moldova and the Baltics

In this introductory lecture on the nation we know today as Estonia, we trace the evolution of its societies from its early settlements to its later organization under the Teutonic Knights and German merchants. The developments in the Baltics during the medieval period reflected the age of mercantilism which swept across continental Europe at this time. They also represented an early stage in the long march of globalization, with Tallinn belonging to the Hanseatic League of free trading cities which spread from Moscow to London. Mutual commercial interests often helped counter ethnic, national and religious rivalries which otherwise dominated European politics. This layer of Estonian history would play a key role in shaping its political direction in the 20th century.

After focusing on influence from the West in Lecture 1, we shift our attention to the East as we explore the growing importance of Muscovy (i.e. Russia) in the Baltic region. Imperial Russia’s efforts evolved from a gradual grab for more land to increasing attempts to control the local societies. The Bolshevik period provided a brief responite, with Estonia enjoying a short period as a soverneign state. Within a few years, however, it was assimilated into the Soviet Union. Estonia’s fate now seemed to be inextricably linked to that of the USSR. World War Two brought a brief interruption in the form of the Nazi German occupation,. But the Soviet leaders only tightened their grip on Estonia after recapturing the Baltic territory at the end of the war.

The treatment of this period in Estonian history is highly sensitive. For the 4 ½ decades under Soviet rule a particular narrative prevailed. We pay a visit to the Museum of Occupation, an institution which would have been unthinkable during Soviet rule. We examine the gradual fight for basic human rights which led up to Estonia regaining its independence. In Estonia’s case the traditional folk music and dance played a key role in the National Awakening, highlighting the importance of language and tradition. Independence brought with is a reassessment of the nations 20th century history, and we focus in particular on the legal implications of the Molotov-von Ribbentrop Pact. The perestroika period which made self reflection possible in the new Russia led to an formal enquiry into this chapter, but its conclusions id not go far enough for many.

The regaining of national sovereignty across the Baltics led to euphoria as well as a host of challenges. The same basic human rights claimed by ethnic Estoniansn during Soviet rule became the subject of complaints by members of the Russian ethnic community , whose numbers had grown considerably during Soviet rule. Once again, language was at the heart of the debates, as the newly independent Estonia instituted policies to restore the Estonian language to its prior status as the official language of the nation. As elsewhere in Eastern Europe, addressing human rights issues became a prerequisite to Estonia’s joining the European Union. Before taking leave of the country, we consider Estonia’s shift to the West and what this means for the country, the region, and the world.

The 1939 Secret Pact as part of treaty between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union remains a controversial historical event. In this Living Law® Closer Look two overviews from Radio Free Europe are presented to describe both the events and their subsequent historical treatment.

Estonia’s neighbor to the south had a similar historical evolution, with a few important differences. It also hosted settlements from outside the region, including the Teutonic Knights and the German merchants, whose castles and fortresses survived down to the present. The mercantilist period is also alive and well in Latvia’s towns and villages, as we witness during our exploration of Riga, formerly known as Reval. We dig deeper into the role and lifestyle of the merchant guilds, who set the societal tone throughout the medieval period. As with Estonia, this historical linkage to Germany was one the justifications for the Nazis occupying the region during much of World War Two.

Latvia shared a similar fate as its Baltic neighbors before and during World War Two, absorbed into the Russian Empire in the 19th century. The creation of the Soviet Union saw the recognition of Latvia and the other Baltic nations as sovereign and independent. For Latvia this was spelled out clearly in Article Two of 1920 Peace Treaty between Latvia and the Soviet Union (similar treaties were concluded with Estonia and Lithuania). A text of the Treaty is contained in the Resources section.

Pursuant to the declaration by the Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic that all nations shall have the right to free independence not excluding even a complete secession from the State to which they presently belong, and observing the will for an independently existing State as firmly expressed by the Latvian nation, Russia recognizes without objection the independence and sovereignty of the Latvian State and forever renounces all sovereign rights held by Russia in relation to the Latvian nation and land on the basis of the previous State legal regime as well as any international agreements, all of which lose their force and effect for all future time as herein provided. The Latvian nation and land shall have no obligations arising from their previous possession by Russia.

That seemed to bring Imperial rule to a definitive end. But the exigencies of the wartime period made that independence short-lived. The secret protocols of the Molotov-von Ribbentrop Pact led to the division of the Baltics into spheres of influence (covered in the Section on Estonia). The end of the War saw the Baltic countries' re-integration into the Soviet Union under Stalin. It also saw the start of an extended period of demographic change and Russification. Throughout the Baltics locals considered hostile to the new socialist society were resettled to other parts of the USSR, or worse. The percentage of ethnic Russians grew steadily in keeping with the Soviet policy of free movement across the Union. Given the relatively better living conditions in the Baltics, the movement was more in one direction.

The World War and postwar periods had a lasting impact on Latvian society. The views of these turbulent periods vary widely, driven largely by an individual’s ethnicity. The competing narratives are on full display as we experience the Victory Day celebrations in Riga, organized largely by the ethnic Russian community. Many ethnic Latvians view this period somewhat differently, associating the Soviet period more with repression and discrimination against the native Latvians. This sentiment comes across clearly during a tour of a former KGB headquarters and prison, now a museum.

The human rights movement which gained momentum in the 1970s, combined with the staggered reform and eventually dissolution of the Soviet Union, finally led to the restoration of Latvian independence in 1991. We explore the practical impact of the political turning of the tables, including the return of Latvian as the official language of the state.

The Baltic Sections in particular highlight the central role played by language in relation to citizenship, societal cohesion, and the exercise of human rights. Language impacts every aspect of a resident's life: education, social interaction, employment opportunities, use of public services like healthcare and transportation. This becomes abundantly clear when one looks through the original Language Law implemented in Latvia. A highlighted version is contained in the Resources section.

Independence brought with it new options of association, which we explore in the final section.

Like its Baltic neighbors, Latvia also opted for a shift westwards, joining both the European Union and NATO in 2004. In essence this was a return to the status quo before the war (and Cold War) periods, with a few important differences. As throughout the Baltics, Latvia had experienced a profound demographic shift by the time of its independence. Similar challenges faced the new government, including how to deal with the Russian ethnic community, many of whom were ill-prepared for life in a capitalist system with a new official language. The challenge was most pronounced in the cities, where Russian speakers made up a majority. The objective of membership in the European Union provided a similar catalyst to facilitating assimilation of citizens and long term residents not automatically deemed citizens into the “new” Latvia.

Having covered the role of the early German settlers in detail in the Sections on Estonia and Latvia, in this introductory lecture we highlight a distinguishing factor of this member of the Baltic trio: Lithuania’s history as a former great power in its own right. Together with Poland, Lithuania formed one of the most powerful empires in the region for several centuries. It stretched from the Baltics to the Black Sea and deep into modern day Russia. This of course meant that the rulers of that empire said the tone and the laws for hundreds of thousands of inhabitants of its territories. One legal masterwork in particular, the Lithuanian Statutes, defined the power structure and class system for several centuries. They also represented a shift away from the absolute monarchies which ruled most of Western Europe at this time. In that sense, they marked an early stepping stone towards democratic rule in Europe, though it would take several more centuries for democracy in the modern sense to take root.

As described in the prior two Sections on Estonia and Latvia, Lithuania suffered a similar fate in terms of its relations with its large neighbor to the East. The late 19th century saw increasing influence from Russia in the aftermath of the decline of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. This continued into the 20th century, with Lithuania also becoming subject to the secret Molotov-von Ribbentrop Pact which facilitated its absorption into the Soviet Union. In this Section we focus on the Jewish dimension of Lithuanian society, considering Vilnius’ status as the “Jerusalem of the East.” The Nazi genocide led to the decimation of what had been one of the largest Jewish populations in all Europe. The genocide under German rule gave way to political persecution in the Soviet era that followed. As with its Baltic neighbors to the north, Lithuania experienced a huge outflux of citizens during this turbulent period.

Having covered the impact of the dissolution of the USSR sufficiently in the first two Sections, in this final lecture on Lithuania we dig deeper into the constitutional underpinnings of the new, independent Lithuanian nation. The principles of the new state reflected both the legacy of the country’s recent history as well as its aspirations for the future. Given the heaviness of the former, we obtain some constitutional comic relief by contrasting the “constitutional” framework of the Uzupis Republic during a visit to this hipster artist community in Lithuania’s capital. We close with a reflection upon Lithuania’s twisting path to its current place at the heart of Europe.