The Roots of Geopolitical Risk: Korea-Japan-South China Sea

Regulating Early Japanese Society: Confucianist and Buddhist underlays

The origins of the Japanese nation are steeped in legend and lore. Japan’s geography as a series of islands sitting on top of a very active seismic area also played into the Japanese view of themselves. Buddhism found fertile ground in Japan but was overtaken by the Shinto faith with its uniquely Japanese elements. Ties with China led to ways of thinking from early Chinese Empires spreading to Japan and across Asia.

One main influence was Confucianism. The philosopher Confucius believed that promoting introspection and human self-regulation- reinforced by societal shame for poor behavior- was preferable to formalized external rules and punishments for their breach. Confucianist influence is visible in one of the earliest written sets of laws regulating Japanese society, the Shotoku Constitution.

The Early Imperial Era

The role of the clans was a regular feature in early Japanese history. Though the Emperor had supreme authority, the leaders of the clans had considerable influence over the state of affairs in Japan. The level of autonomy of the clans and the regions they controlled waxed and waned over the centuries.

In terms of law, the Taika reforms, with their roots in developments in Imperial China, swept over Japan as well. This was not a wholesale adoption, however, and the upward mobility enabled by China’s approach to meritocracy was only partly embraced by Japan’s rulers. A relatively more rigid hierarchy became embedded in Japanese society. This period also saw the seat of power shifting first to Kyoto, then to Kamakura, both of which are stops during this roving lecture.

The Early Shogunate Era

The 13th century saw the attempted invasion by Mongol forces, who already controlled much of the Asian continent. They were stymied by nature, the famed divine winds known as kamikaze, thus adding to the mythical and special status the Japanese believed their nation had. The events furthered the Japanese worldview of outsiders as barbarians and constituting a threat, which impacted Imperial rule for the next several centuries. They also contributed to a trend of defining Japanese culture with more home-grown elements.

During the European mercantile period, trading companies pushed their way into Asia. When playing by the locals’ rules proved to slow, gunboat diplomacy helped the Europeans gain footholds in China and Japan. But the Japanese were more successful in controlling the European influence, limiting missionaries and traders to specific ports.

European Arrivals and the Closing of Japan

Japanese leaders’ views of the influence of the Europeans increasingly turned negative. They observed the spread of Christianity and other European ideas with suspicion if not outright hostility. This played out against the backdrop of clan rivalries and fights for power. The forces hostile to the new arrivals won the upper hand, and by the 17th century Japan began closing its doors to outsiders. It was the beginning of a long period of isolation.

A Forced Ending of Japan’s Seclusion

The era of seclusion led to the end of the Christian missionizing by the Portuguese and almost to the complete isolation from outside influences. While this may have facilitated the consolidation of the Japanese nation and power structures, it also meant missing out on the dramatic changes taking place such as industrialization. Scientific and technological developments also impacted the relative military strengths of the major world powers. Soon enough the barbarians were knocking on Japan’s doors again, this time arriving on steam-powered gunboats. The pragmatism of Japan’s rulers led to a gradual opening focused on trade. Japan was faced with a monumental task of catch-up in terms of modernization, and it embraced this with a combination of resolve and reserve.

Modernization and the Meiji Restoration

The challenge of modernization led to a revitalization of the Imperial Court at the end of the 19th century. Societal changes were anchored in the Meiji Constitution, whose bottom-up influences would have been unthinkable in earlier times. In addition to the growth of mercantilism and the economy, conscription laws and investment in the military quickly raised Japan’s status as a military power in the region.

The modernization strategy began to pay off. Japan, the rising power in Asia, gained control of Korea after winning the Sino-Japanese War. In the early 20th century, Imperial Japan consolidated its control over the Korean peninsula and exerted considerable influence over both the government and society in Korea. Its victory over Russia in the 1904-05 war strengthened its regional status and caught the attention of the Western powers.

From Military Might to Nuclear Target

During the turbulent early 20th century, the Japanese government maintained a tight grip on society and dissent through measures such as the Peace Preservation Laws. Meanwhile, the military buildup continued and Japan began flexing its might. By the time the Second World War was starting, Japan was firmly entrenched in Korea and Upper Manchuria. The Imperial Japanese military instituted Japan’s policy of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, which extended throughout much of East and Southeastern Asia. Japan joined Germany and Italy against the Allied powers in World War II.

Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in Dec. of 1941 brought the United States into the War. This apparent violation of the law of war in general and the Hague Convention in particular colored the world view of wartime Japan. The conduct of the war by the Japanese military and the treatment of prisoners of war in particular triggered outrage and distrust. In the United States, distrust regarding the loyalties of Americans of Japanese descent led to tens of thousands of citizens being placed in camps. Towards the end of the war, the refusal of the Japanese leaders to surrender led to the US decision to drop atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, thus opening the horrific chapter of nuclear war on earth.

The destruction left behind by the war including the first use of nuclear weapons left Japan in desperate need of an overhaul. The US government had two main objectives in relation to postwar Japan: 1) to destroy the Imperial Japanese war machine and 2) to establish a peaceful and responsible government. The second objective required a dramatically different approach to the usual "conqueror's rule", and this archival gem "Road to Democracy" provides a realtime picture of the dynamic process which shaped postwar Japan.

A Phoenix from the Ashes

After 1945, Japan tried to put the war period behind it, with the Tokyo War Tribunals and the creation of a new Constitution for the country. The pacifist Constitution restricted the development of the military and limited its role to self-defense. The role of the Emperor and the Imperial House also changed, as the US military occupation attempted to direct the government and society towards a more democratic political system. A postwar economic boom saw Japan rise to become a technological innovator and the second largest economy in the world. Japanese cultural goods have had great success in world markets. Today Japan is one of the wealthiest nations on the planet, whose main challenges appear to be demographics (a rapidly aging and shrinking population) and security (the impact of China’s “peaceful rise”). The 21stcentury issues are causing a revisit of some of the basic premises of Japan’s postwar legal and political institutions.

Confucian Roots

Vietnam’s historical connection to China left traces in its culture and social structures. In Imperial times that meant Confucianist thinking. The philosopher Confucius believed that promoting introspection and human self-regulation- reinforced by societal shame for poor behavior- was preferable to formalized external rules and punishments for their breach. In short, the (self-)rule of man as opposed to the rule of law. This approach permeated Chinese societal thinking for centuries and spread to much of Asia, including Vietnam.

A key feature of Confucian societies was the expectation of obedience to authority. Leaders, for their part, had to govern well to justify the maintenance of that authority. To facilitate this, Imperial China sought a strong civil service, with selection of officials based upon a strict examination program. Temples of Literature were places of learning and a training grounds for future civil servants. Hanoi boasts one of the best-preserved examples, virtually unchanged for centuries. The achievements of the best performers on the exams were memorialized on stone tablets which have survived for centuries. The Confucian model of governance formed an important layer of and contributor to Vietnamese culture.

Learning Objective: students will learn about the role of Confucianist thinking on state governance in early Asian societies, including Vietnam.

The Desire for Autonomy

Although Chinese political and cultural influence lasted for centuries, in Vietnamese society there was often an undercurrent of desire for more autonomy. In some periods this feeling was so strong that it led to outright insurrections and conflict. A key military victory in 938 AD resulted in broad self-governance which lasted about a millennium. Only European colonial ambitions in Asia brought it to an end, but as it would turn out, only a temporary one.

Learning Objective: students will learn that both foreign conquest and the desire for autonomy have deep roots in Vietnamese history.

Vietnam as Part of French Indochina

By the 19th century, Great Britain had established a strong foothold in the region at Hong Kong and Kowloon. It also had further colonial outposts in Southeast Asia, including Malaysia. The French did not want to be outdone, and in a relatively short period managed to gain control over the territory of modern Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. The French instituted the political and legal system of the French Empire, using Saigon (Ho Chi Minh City today) as their base. Christianity, in the form of the Catholic church, also took root as a result of the work of French missionaries. But as in relation to the Chinese rulers of centuries past, the Vietnamese undercurrent of desire for self-determination continued to percolate.

Learning Objective: students will trace the gradual influence of Europeans in the region, culminating in colonization by the French.

Restlessness and Resistance

The 20th century saw a page taken from Vietnam’s earlier history, with increasing resistance to outside (this time French) rule. This accelerated with the spread of Communism, which resonated widely in the rural and agriculture areas of the region. Political agitation, followed by suppression, triggered further and more militant political agitation. The Communist movement produced a key figure who would eventually lead the country towards independence, but at a very heavy cost.

"Uncle Ho” and the Struggle for Independence

After a long incubation period outside the country, Nguyễn Ái Quốc returned to his native land and became a leading figure in the movement to oust the French from the region. The increasing polarization of the world into Communist/socialist and capitalist/democratic camps directly impacted how events played out. Communist agitators received support, sometimes direct, sometimes tacit, from the leading Communist countries. Those wishing to preserve the status quo received assistance from the French colonial rulers and later other Western powers, in particular the United States. When agreement was reached on partition in 1954, combined with the departure of French troops, it seemed as if peace and stability would prevail. But it was only a matter of time before the cracks in the solution would prove it to be a temporary one.

Learning Objective: students will hear about the life of the man who became known as "father of the country" after his death, against the backdrop of the geopolitical developments of the 20th century.

A War in Everything but Name

The Cold War had seen a hardening of geopolitical lines and increasing tension in the region. The Korean War had ended in a ceasefire and a division of the country. The stalemate in Vietnam had also produced a partition, but one that would prove shorter lived than in Korea. The withdrawal of French troops was accompanied by the increasing involvement of the US military. Fears of a “domino effect” if South Vietnam fell to Communist rule made conflict ever more likely. The Tonkin Incident in 1964 was a watershed moment. It led to the full-scale involvement of the US military in Vietnam in an effort to confront Communist attempts at unifying North and South Vietnam under Communist Rule. Though war was never officially declared, the “police action” or “conflict” would prove to be the longest and deadliest in US military history.

Learning Objective: students will follow how the involvement of the United States evolved from military assistance to full scale engagement in a conflict which divided a generation of Americans.

War through the Lens of the Law

There are many documentaries and films covering the Vietnam War. Most focus on the geopolitical and ideological competition which triggered it, while others focus on the horror of the conflict. The roughly two decades of fighting were also illustrative of another point: the limitations of the international law of war. Despite the fact that the combatants and their supporters were all members of the United Nations and party to numerous international conventions dealing with military conflict, the period saw some of the worst atrocities since World War II. And that across all facets of armed conflict, from combat, to the treatment of civilians and prisoners of war (PoWs). The war period held many lessons regarding the practical application of the norms of international law related to conflict.

Learning Objective: students will cover some key points in the international law of war, including rules around initiating hostilities, engagement, and treatment of civilians and prisoners of war (PoWs), as well as the weakness in that system revealed by the conflict.

Enduring Legacy vs. Continuing Controversy

Much of the narrative around Ho Chi Minh was created after the cessation of hostilities. In fact, he did not live to see the outcome of the conflict or the unification of the country under Communist rule. For some people he remains the "father of the country," while others question whether the end justified the means. What would Ho Chi Minh think of how the country has evolved since?

From mortal enemies to partners in cooperation

By the turn of the millennium relations between Vietnam and the United States had evolved considerably. Leaders from both countries, including several war veterans, took the lead in normalising diplomatic and commercial relations. The tragic common history proved as much an opportunity as a challenge for cooperation.  There are many speeches and statements which capture this dramatic change of course, but this example from 2000 covers many of the topics covered in this course: Vietnam's historical struggle for independence, the turbulent 20th century, and the prospects for a brighter future in the 21st century.

Socialism with “free trade” characteristics

Like the USSR and many Eastern European nations, Vietnam struggled economically following unification. It also followed the example of the USSR and other socialist nations by moving to liberalize the economy, while at the same time trying to retain one-party rule.

It followed China in joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). The carrot of WTO membership was the opening up of global markets to Vietnamese goods under equal (or better) terms as enjoyed by other WTO members, and the likelihood of foreign direct investment to fill Vietnam’s growing need for capital and technology.

Vietnam’s accession to the WTO at the start of 2007 triggered the need for an overhaul of the legal system, particularly commercial laws. Economic reform and WTO accession propelled Vietnam to a major exporter and regional economic power in just a few years. Though many have seen their standard of living rise considerably since the introduction of economic reforms, there is concern about social inequality.

Learning Objective: in this lecture we learn how Vietnam's overhaul of its economic and trading system helped it create a successful capitalist economy within a socialist political framework.

Plenty of Fish in the Sea… but Who’s Sea?

As highlighted in the beginning, Vietnam’s enviable geographic position has made it attractive to regional powers throughout its history. But land is not the only attractive element the country enjoys. Vietnam’s long coastline brings with it certain rights under international law to exploit the resources within its territorial waters. But the real riches may lie further afield. That brings Vietnam into competition with other countries in the region who also claim rights in the broader South China Sea, in particular the People’s Republic of China.

Some fear that competition may eventually lead to conflict, if the respective governments and international organizations are unable to defuse tensions and find a resolution to the competing claims. A recent decision of a dispute settlement panel reviewing the claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was on the whole favorable to the petitioner (Philippines) and other countries in the region (including Vietnam), but it has been rejected by China. The issue of who has what rights is likely to remain a sensitive one in the near future, as countries in the region manage their further economic development.

Learning Objective: students will learn about the nature of the South China Sea dispute and consider how this might impact the situation in the region.