Scenario Planning - A Powerful Foresight Technique
- 2 hours on-demand video
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- Certificate of Completion
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- How to visualize alternative ways your future could realistically turn out
- How to think like a far-sighted decision maker
- How to avoid unrealistic expectations based on linear thinking
- How to see the big picture for your organization – and understand how it could change
- How to identify the critical uncertainties that will shape the future of a business, country, or industry
- How to generate a portfolio of contrasting but plausible future "landscapes", for any organization
- How to develop ideas and strategic initiatives that would be successful in each future scenario
- Marketing and finance know-how is helpful but not necessary
The future is going to be different. We all know that, right? But how is it going to be different? That's the key question you face in business, because you have to make decisions and strategic plans today for a future that is unknowable - but very definitely changing. Scenario planning is a creative, very practical technique to foresee (and better: understand) how your future business environment could evolve - and in different directions. Scenario planning is thus about exploring alternative futures that can realistically emerge. Its practical value is that, by helping you foresee different ways your particular market or business terrain could change, you'll make better long-term plans today. Based on my best-selling book on this fascinating approach to thinking about future change, my 2-hour Udemy "crash course" walks you through the process of generating future scenarios - a process which is structured, logical - and yet very imaginative. Join me for an eye-opening learning experience!
- Students of business or economics
- Strategy or planning professionals
- Marketing professionals
- Entrepreneurs, especially founders or investors in start-ups
- Anyone with responsibility for the future success of an organization of any kind
Welcome to this course on scenario planning, a methodology for exploring future change. In this introductory module, in addition to learning about the course objectives and a few things about your instructor, Woody Wade, we'll briefly discuss the nature of change, and why it's so important in business to continuously scan the horizon so you will be alert to the different kinds of changes that are always happening all around you - some of which might have a significant impact on your future success.
In business, people do of course think about the future when they are developing plans and strategies. But often, the way they think about future change is too simplistic - and risky. In this lesson, we will explore this erroneous approach, and why it can be misleading. Then we will look at the way the future actually does unfold, and how taking a different conceptual approach - i.e. scenario planning - naturally leads to a realization that, at any given moment, there is not "one" future - but several alternative futures.
In the scenario generation methodology this course is teaching you, the first step is to identify as many so-called "driving forces" as possible, i.e. trends or developments that will probably have some influence on the way your future landscape emerges. Then, because it's not practical to wrestle with so many different factors, you will learn how to narrow this list of driving forces down to the most critical uncertainties that will be challenging you over the next few years.
The next steps in the scenario generation process are derived from the choice of critical uncertainties. These help you build a framework of alternative future landscapes, or scenarios - despite their highly contrasting profiles, they are all plausible. Next, you describe these scenarios in terms of the key attributes relevant to your business, and finally give each of the scenarios a memorable name.
By this point in the process, you have an understanding of how the scenarios you've defined differ from each other, and what would be their "look and feel" as business environments in which you may find yourself operating. What now? The next step - where the rubber meets the road - is to identify the opportunities and challenges that each scenario would present, and work out a basic action plan that would improve your chances of success in each of the futures you've postulated.