
Explore time series analysis in Python to forecast sales using Arima and Prophet, with hands-on preprocessing, visualization, model evaluation, and parameter tuning.
Learn data preprocessing in Python using Jupyter notebook, pandas, and read_excel to filter furniture sales data and prepare date and sales features for time series forecasting.
Perform data preprocessing by dropping unnecessary columns and sorting by order date to tidy the dataset; then group by date to aggregate daily sales and reset the index.
Set the time-based index with order date to organize the time series, then resample to month-wise means, outlining up sampling and down sampling for forecasting.
visualize monthwise time series data using matplotlib to explore trends and seasonality in furniture sales, and decompose the series into level, trend, seasonality, and noise.
Explore seasonality, trend, level, and noise, and learn to decompose time series with additive or multiplicative models using statsmodels seasonal_decompose, then build forecasts with ARIMA.
Explore time series forecasting with arima in Python, learn parameter p, d, q for seasonality, trend, and noise, and generate arimax variants through pdq combinations.
Explore time series forecasting by performing a grid search over PDQ values and seasonal parameters to fit seasonal ARIMA models, evaluate with AIC, and select the best model.
Explore parameter tuning for seasonal Arima models using Arimax from statsmodels, evaluating AIC scores, handling numerical misspecifications with exception handling, and fitting the optimal model in a state space framework.
Explore how to evaluate a seasonal arima model by examining p-values, residuals diagnostics, and qq plots, then validate forecasts by comparing predicted and real sales.
Predict future values using time series forecasting, compare predicted versus real sales to validate accuracy, and quantify error with mean squared error and root mean squared error.
Produce and visualize forecasts from a time series by plotting observed versus predicted values, highlighting confidence intervals and seasonality, and compare furniture to office supplies through preprocessing and grouping.
Perform data exploration by setting the index for furniture and office data frames, resampling monthly, and merging their sales data to compare seasonal patterns and ARIMA-ready time series.
Install and use Facebook Prophet to build time series forecasts, handling yearly, weekly, and daily patterns with holidays effects and custom change points, available for Python and R.
Build time series forecasts with the prophet library by modeling trend, seasonality, and holidays, then fit data, create future frames, and visualize predictions from multiple datasets.
Apply Prophet to train on data points and generate forecasts with blue prediction lines and light blue uncertainty intervals, then compare furniture and office forecasts merged via inner join.
Learn to evaluate Prophet models by merging furniture and office forecasts, examining y hat with lower and upper bounds, and visualizing trends and seasonality with Prophet's plot components.
Welcome to the dynamic realm of "Data Science in Python: From Preprocessing to Forecasting." This comprehensive course is designed to immerse you in the multifaceted world of data science, offering a step-by-step journey from the foundational principles of data preprocessing to the advanced techniques of forecasting using the Prophet library. Whether you're a novice aspiring to delve into the intricacies of data analysis or an experienced professional seeking to refine your skills, this course caters to a broad spectrum of learners.
Embark on a learning adventure where theoretical knowledge seamlessly merges with practical applications. Uncover the nuances of data preprocessing, navigate the complexities of feature engineering, and harness the power of graph visualization components. Transition into the practical aspects of model training, validation, and forecasting, culminating in the utilization of the Prophet library for creating and evaluating predictive models.
Throughout this course, you'll engage in hands-on activities, real-world case studies, and comprehensive exercises, ensuring a holistic understanding of each concept. The curriculum is crafted to empower you with the skills and insights required to tackle diverse data science challenges, from enhancing data quality to making accurate predictions about future trends.
Join us on this transformative learning journey, where you'll not only grasp the theoretical underpinnings of data science but also gain the practical expertise needed to excel in the field. Whether you aim to propel your career forward or simply satisfy your curiosity about the fascinating world of data, this course is your gateway to mastering the intricacies of data science. Let's embark on this educational odyssey together!
Introduction:
This opening section serves as a course prelude, introducing learners to the overarching project's goals and context. It provides clarity on the themes and outcomes expected throughout the course, setting the tone for a comprehensive exploration of the subject matter.
Data Preprocessing:
In this foundational section, learners dive into the intricacies of data preprocessing. The emphasis is on mastering techniques to clean, format, and organize raw data effectively. From basic data cleaning to advanced preprocessing methods, learners gain a solid understanding of the crucial steps preceding data analysis.
Data Preprocessing and Feature Engineering:
Building upon the fundamentals of data preprocessing, this section introduces the concept of feature engineering. Learners explore how to enhance model performance by strategically creating new features. Practical insights into various methods and considerations help learners make informed decisions during the feature engineering process.
Graph Visualization - Components:
Transitioning into visualization, this section explores the components of graph visualization. Learners gain insights into the significance of these components in representing and interpreting data graphically. Advanced features and customization options are covered, empowering learners to create compelling visualizations.
Training Model:
This section marks a shift towards the practical aspects of model training. It covers modeling and evaluation, guiding learners through the fundamentals of creating models and assessing their performance against various metrics. The focus is on building a strong foundation for subsequent sections.
Validation and Forecasting:
Focusing on model validation techniques and forecasting methods, this section equips learners with the skills to validate models effectively. It explores forecasting as a means to predict future trends based on historical data, laying the groundwork for subsequent forecasting-related sections.
Producing and Visualizing Forecasts:
Building upon forecasting, this section emphasizes the application of forecasting models to produce and visualize predictions. Learners explore visualization techniques that enhance the interpretability of forecasts, aiding effective communication of insights to diverse audiences.
Comparing Models:
This section guides learners in the critical task of model comparison. Strategies for evaluating and selecting the most effective model for specific use cases are explored. Comparative analysis adds a layer of sophistication to the model selection process, ensuring informed decision-making.
Installation of Library Prophet:
A practical hands-on section, it guides learners through the installation of the Prophet library. This step is crucial for the subsequent sections where learners will utilize Prophet for creating predictive models in the context of time-series forecasting.
Creating a Model using Prophet:
Continuing from the installation, this section immerses learners in the practical process of creating models using the Prophet library. Hands-on exercises allow learners to apply theoretical knowledge, refining their skills in time-series forecasting using this powerful tool.
Evaluation of Model of Prophet Library:
The final section focuses on the evaluation of models created using the Prophet library. Learners gain insights into assessing model performance, ensuring accuracy, and validating the effectiveness of their time-series forecasting predictions.