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30-Day Money-Back Guarantee
Business Project Management Risk Management

Quantitative Project Risk Register

Using @RISK's Monte Carlo simulation to overcome qualitative risk analysis weaknesses and flaws in project risk analysis
Rating: 4.2 out of 54.2 (4 ratings)
33 students
Created by Fernando Hernandez
Last updated 5/2020
English
English
30-Day Money-Back Guarantee

What you'll learn

  • Using Monte Carlo simulation to quantify project risks and replace qualitative risk analysis.

Requirements

  • Intermediate Excel

Description

This course starts by explaining traditional qualitative risk registers and risk matrices. We explain why this methodology of listing risks for a project or company is full of weaknesses and flaws, in its attempt to use frequency and severity components to build a risk analysis. By comparison, we will carefully build a case for quantitative risk analysis for a project, using an @RISK’s Monte Carlo simulation approach. Along the many lessons, we carefully add all the components on how to build a robust risk register, able to build probabilistic contingencies on a project. We add proper distributions for dealing with frequency and severity, simulation techniques, correlation, scenario analysis, and optimization of mitigation strategies. At the end, we compare qualitative and quantitative risk analysis powered by simulation.

Who this course is for:

  • Project specialists , project managers, project risk managers, @RISK practitioners

Course content

7 sections • 28 lectures • 2h 56m total length

  • Preview05:06
  • Preview01:49
  • Preview04:37

  • Creating The Risk Register
    10:24
  • Other Multiple Frequency Events
    08:44
  • Completing Multiple Frequency Events And Running A Simulation
    08:13

  • Interpreting Results And Sensitivity Analysis
    04:55
  • The RiskMakeInput Function
    05:45
  • Interpreting Tornado: Change In Output Mean
    04:34
  • The Riskcompound Function
    15:36
  • Re-Interpreting Change In Output Mean Tornado Chart
    03:58
  • Interpreting Tornado: Regression Coefficients
    08:01
  • Writing Correlation Coefficients On The Model
    04:51
  • Interpreting Tornado: Contribution To Variance
    02:58
  • Interpreting Tornado: Spider Graph – Change In Output Mean
    02:14

  • Understanding Correlation
    04:25
  • Inserting Correlations To The Model
    08:57
  • Running Simulations With Correlation
    02:16
  • Running multiple scenarios with RiskSimTable
    07:07

  • Creating Results After Mitigation
    13:39
  • Setting Up, Running And Interpreting Simulation
    05:56

  • Optimizing Mitigation Strategies
    06:02
  • Defining Adjustable Cells And Constraints
    05:16
  • Defining Optimization Settings
    05:23
  • Running An Optimization
    07:43
  • Running Alternative Optimizations
    06:27

  • Comparing Optimizations
    07:48
  • Comparing Qualitative Heat Maps To Quantitative Simulation
    04:05

Instructor

Fernando Hernandez
Risk and Decision Analysis Consultant and Trainer
Fernando Hernandez
  • 4.3 Instructor Rating
  • 58 Reviews
  • 233 Students
  • 10 Courses

Fernando Hernandez has served as senior risk and decisions consultant and instructor for Palisade Corporation since 2003. As such, he has developed risk quantification models in North, Central and South America, Europe, Australia, Africa and the Middle East for clients in multiple industries such as project management, oil & gas, mining, telecommunications, transportation, manufacturing, finance, banking and insurance. He has taught courses and given lectures on risk quantification, decision making, optimization, statistics and strategic finance. He has delivered over 10,000 hours on the past fifteen years of his consulting/training practice, having visited more than 150 clients in some thirty five countries.

Prior to his involvement as a consultant in Palisade Corporation, Fernando chaired CFO positions in multinational and local companies in various industries: banking, manufacturing, hospital services, consumer goods, information technology. He also taught MBA courses such as: Introduction to Corporate Finance, Financial Simulation and investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has built financial models, risk models and feasibility studies using @RISK.

Fernando earned his degree in Financial Management at the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar awarded by the U.S. government, he obtained an MBA from Indiana University with a major in Finance and Management Information Systems.

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