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Business Project Management Estimation

Project Costing with Monte Carlo Simulated Probabilities

Using @RISK to quantify project contingency considering price and quantity variations and risk events.
Rating: 4.6 out of 54.6 (4 ratings)
26 students
Created by Fernando Hernandez
Last updated 3/2020
English
English
30-Day Money-Back Guarantee

What you'll learn

  • How to calculate probabilistic contingency using Monte Carlo simulation, considering all kinds of risks on any type of project. The objective is to demonstrate a number of basic and intermediate tools from @RISK that are relevant to current practices used in the world of project management. The goal is to show how @RISK tools can be used to represent quantitative – not qualitative – risk analysis.

Requirements

  • Intermediate knowledge of Excel.

Description

We present here an integrated business case for calculating a simplified project cost estimation. An integrated case for calculating a simplified project cost and its probabilistic contingency reserve estimation.  Quantification of price and quantity risk as well as event risks. The objective of presenting this example is to demonstrate a number of basic and intermediate tools from @RISK that are relevant to current practices used in the world of project management.  The goal is to show how @RISK tools can be used to represent quantitative – not qualitative – risk analysis.

Who this course is for:

  • Project-related professionals and students: Project managers, cost estimators, cost engineers, project planners and schedulers.

Course content

5 sections • 24 lectures • 2h 6m total length

  • Preview02:32
  • Preview02:04
  • Preview07:59
  • Considering Event Risks
    06:33

  • Determining Contingency Reserve With Emv
    05:19

  • Inserting Variability To Project Activities
    07:52
  • Inserting Variability To Project Activities: Part 2
    03:40
  • Structuring The First Event Risk: Client Breach
    03:56
  • Structuring The Second Event Risk: Subcontractors Going Out Of Business: 1
    07:49
  • Structuring The Second Event Risk: Subcontractors Going Out Of Business. Part 2
    04:23
  • Structuring The Third Event Risk: Weather Related Delays
    06:13
  • Completing Details To Run The First Simulation
    07:08

  • Interpreting Simulation Results: Histogram
    08:13
  • Interpreting Simulation Results: Tornado Graphs
    04:33
  • The Riskmakeinput Function
    07:53
  • Interpreting Tornado: Change In Output Mean
    07:23
  • Interpreting Tornado: Regression Coefficients
    08:04
  • Interpreting Tornado: Scatterplots
    01:44
  • Interpreting Tornado: Correlation Coefficients (Spearman Rank)
    02:05
  • Interpreting Tornado: Regression Mapped Values
    02:07
  • Interpreting Tornado: Contribution To Variance
    03:05
  • Interpreting Tornado: Spider Graph – Change In Output Mean
    02:33

  • Inserting Simulation Statistics
    06:45
  • Inserting Results Graphs
    06:59

Instructor

Fernando Hernandez
Risk and Decision Analysis Consultant and Trainer
Fernando Hernandez
  • 4.3 Instructor Rating
  • 58 Reviews
  • 233 Students
  • 10 Courses

Fernando Hernandez has served as senior risk and decisions consultant and instructor for Palisade Corporation since 2003. As such, he has developed risk quantification models in North, Central and South America, Europe, Australia, Africa and the Middle East for clients in multiple industries such as project management, oil & gas, mining, telecommunications, transportation, manufacturing, finance, banking and insurance. He has taught courses and given lectures on risk quantification, decision making, optimization, statistics and strategic finance. He has delivered over 10,000 hours on the past fifteen years of his consulting/training practice, having visited more than 150 clients in some thirty five countries.

Prior to his involvement as a consultant in Palisade Corporation, Fernando chaired CFO positions in multinational and local companies in various industries: banking, manufacturing, hospital services, consumer goods, information technology. He also taught MBA courses such as: Introduction to Corporate Finance, Financial Simulation and investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has built financial models, risk models and feasibility studies using @RISK.

Fernando earned his degree in Financial Management at the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar awarded by the U.S. government, he obtained an MBA from Indiana University with a major in Finance and Management Information Systems.

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