Project Costing with Monte Carlo Simulated Probabilities
What you'll learn
- How to calculate probabilistic contingency using Monte Carlo simulation, considering all kinds of risks on any type of project. The objective is to demonstrate a number of basic and intermediate tools from @RISK that are relevant to current practices used in the world of project management. The goal is to show how @RISK tools can be used to represent quantitative – not qualitative – risk analysis.
- Intermediate knowledge of Excel.
We present here an integrated business case for calculating a simplified project cost estimation. An integrated case for calculating a simplified project cost and its probabilistic contingency reserve estimation. Quantification of price and quantity risk as well as event risks. The objective of presenting this example is to demonstrate a number of basic and intermediate tools from @RISK that are relevant to current practices used in the world of project management. The goal is to show how @RISK tools can be used to represent quantitative – not qualitative – risk analysis.
Who this course is for:
- Project-related professionals and students: Project managers, cost estimators, cost engineers, project planners and schedulers.
Fernando Hernandez has served as senior risk and decisions consultant and instructor for Palisade Corporation since 2003. As such, he has developed risk quantification models in North, Central and South America, Europe, Australia, Africa and the Middle East for clients in multiple industries such as project management, oil & gas, mining, telecommunications, transportation, manufacturing, finance, banking and insurance. He has taught courses and given lectures on risk quantification, decision making, optimization, statistics and strategic finance. He has delivered over 10,000 hours on the past fifteen years of his consulting/training practice, having visited more than 150 clients in some thirty five countries.
Prior to his involvement as a consultant in Palisade Corporation, Fernando chaired CFO positions in multinational and local companies in various industries: banking, manufacturing, hospital services, consumer goods, information technology. He also taught MBA courses such as: Introduction to Corporate Finance, Financial Simulation and investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has built financial models, risk models and feasibility studies using @RISK.
Fernando earned his degree in Financial Management at the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar awarded by the U.S. government, he obtained an MBA from Indiana University with a major in Finance and Management Information Systems.