
Explore how probability underpins statistics, guiding data analysis, distributions, and probability distribution functions, and connect random variables to real-world questions. Lay a foundation for future topics and applications.
Master basics of set theory for probability, defining elements and sets, exploring subset and null set notation, and applying complement, intersection, and union operations.
Visualize probability relationships using Venn diagrams with a sample space rectangle and subset circles, illustrating complement, intersection, and union through problem solving.
Learn the basics of probability, including the axioms and the addition rule, and use the sample space, events, and union and intersection with dice examples.
Explore conditional probability, the multiplication rule, independence, and tree diagrams, paving the way to Bayes' theorem and the law of total probability.
Explore a visual recap of conditional probability using a 16-square grid to compute blue and pink outcomes and their conditional relationships, laying groundwork for Bayesian statistics.
Bayesian probability applies Bayes' formula to update the likelihood a text came from Candice given emoji, with 65% Alice, 25% Beth, 10% Candice and emoji rates 5%, 10%, 50%.
Compute the probability of both lab work and referral using P(R and L) = P(R) + P(L) − P(R or L); with P(R)=0.30, P(L)=0.40, P(R or L)=0.65, yielding 0.05.
solve a probability problem using a two-circle venn diagram, calculating liability and property probabilities and their intersection, then determine the probability of not filing a claim as 0.89.
Build a two-way table for blood pressure (high, low, normal) and heartbeat (regular, irregular), use totals to compute the joint probability of regular heartbeat with low blood pressure.
Analyze a tough airline punctuality problem using conditional probability and the law of total probability to compute on-time arrival probabilities and the probability of both on-time departure and arrival.
Welcome to this short course on Probability Theory.
We will cover the following topics:
Set Theory
Venn Diagrams
Probability Theory
Conditional Probability
Bayesian Probability
We will then look at a few questions that are based on the actuarial exams.
This course at a First Year University Level and assumes you have had an introduction to Probability at school. The course is quite mathematical and you might want to brush up on your maths abilities before attempting it.