Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification
4.4 (446 ratings)
Course Ratings are calculated from individual students’ ratings and a variety of other signals, like age of rating and reliability, to ensure that they reflect course quality fairly and accurately.
2,643 students enrolled

Level 3 Intelligence Analyst Certification

Predictive Intelligence Analysis
4.4 (446 ratings)
Course Ratings are calculated from individual students’ ratings and a variety of other signals, like age of rating and reliability, to ensure that they reflect course quality fairly and accurately.
2,643 students enrolled
Created by Robert Folker
Last updated 7/2019
English
English [Auto]
Current price: $69.99 Original price: $99.99 Discount: 30% off
5 hours left at this price!
30-Day Money-Back Guarantee
This course includes
  • 2 hours on-demand video
  • 1 downloadable resource
  • 1 Practice Test
  • Full lifetime access
  • Access on mobile and TV
  • Assignments
  • Certificate of Completion
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What you'll learn
  • Apply critical thinking skills during the analytic process
  • Demonstate the role of probabilities in predictive analysis
  • Create and use probability trees
  • Create and use utility trees and utility matrices
  • Create and use an advanced utility matrix
  • Understand how Bayes applies to intelligence predictions
  • Use Excel to apply Bayes to aid intelligence analysis
Requirements
  • Students must have successfully completed the Level 1 and Level 2 Intelligence Analyst Certification courses before enrolling in this course. It is preferred that students have a working knowledge of and access to MS Excel to complete this course.
  • A familiarity with and access to MS Excel is highly recommended but not required.
Description

The views expressed in this course are the instructor's alone and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, the Intelligence Community, or the Department of Defense.

This course builds on the Level 1 and Level 2 courses on Intelligence Analysis to teach the student how to think in probabilities and structure their analysis to produce predictive intelligence.  Upon completion of the course, the graduate will be able to use MS Excel to apply the Bayes Theorem to participate in forecasting tournaments and make specific intelligence predictions to prevent surprise.

Who this course is for:
  • This is an expert level course and is designed for an experienced intelligence analyst
Course content
Expand all 18 lectures 02:08:11
+ The Role of Thinking & Probabilities in Predictive Intelligence
4 lectures 27:49

The student will better understand the role of probabilities in the language of making intelligence estimates.

Preview 06:00
This assignment will assess your initial understanding of conditional probability.
Safecracker Exercise
1 question

The student will know how to apply the three rules (the events must be mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive, and probabilities of the branches must equal to 1) for constructing a probability tree.

The Probability Tree, Pt 2
08:43
This assignment will help you better understand mutually exclusive probabilities.
Jelly Bean Exercise
1 question

The student will be able to construct probability trees to structure and aid their analysis of several different problem sets.

The Probability Tree, Pt 3
09:09
The Role of Thinking & Probabilities
12 questions
+ Utility Analysis for Predictive Intelligence
6 lectures 49:13

The student will understand the role of options, outcomes, and perspectives in utility analysis.

The Utility Tree, Pt 1
06:59

The student will be able to complete all the steps in constructing a utility tree to aid their intelligence analysis.

The Utility Tree, Pt 2
07:33

The student will be able to construct and apply utility trees for non-monetary problems or problems that aren't objectively quantifiable.

The Utility Tree, Pt 3
10:02

The student will be able to convert a probability tree into a matrix and apply the concepts of utility analysis to problems that are better visualized through a different structure.

The Utility Matrix
10:54
Use the utility matrix to structure your analysis and demonstrate why Anwar Sadat ordered Egyptian forces to invade the Sinai in October 1973.
Yom Kippur War of 1973
1 question

The student will be able to apply the concepts of utility analysis to analyze a problem from multiple perspectives.

Advanced Utility Analysis, Pt 1
09:03
You've been asked to help the players' union decide whether to strike.
NBA Players' Strike
1 question

The student will be able to perform multiple classes of outcomes utility analysis.

Advanced Utility Analysis, Pt 2
04:42
Utility Analysis Quiz
12 questions
+ Bayes Rule
8 lectures 51:09

After this course the student will be able to use MS Excel and Bayes Rule to calculate the probability of an event given one item of evidence.

Using Excel for Bayes Rule Calculations
06:07

After this course the student will be able to use MS Excel to calculate the probability of an event with more than one piece of evidence using the total probability formulation of Bayes Rule.

Calculating Total Probability
11:52

Given a specific example, use the Total Probability Bayes Rule to solve a problem.

Preview 01:30
Based on the information presented in the prior lesson, determine the probability that you have the rare disease previously described.
Applying Bayesian Thinking
1 question
Multiple Hypothesis Testing
03:45

Given a specific example, use the Multiple Hypothesis Testing version of Bayes Rule to solve a problem.

Preview 00:58
Based on the information presented in the prior lesson, determine the probability that your cough is caused by an allergy.
Applying Bayes to Multiple Hypotheses Testing
1 question
Applied Predictive Intelligence Analysis, Pt 1
09:24
Applied Predictive Intelligence Analysis, Part 2
08:09
Bayes Rule Quiz
6 questions
+ Conclusion
0 lectures 00:00
Predictive Intelligence
25 questions
Exercise your predictive analysis skills.
Make a Forecast!
1 question
Predictive Intelligence Final Exam
10 questions