This lesson starts with a reminder from the previous chapter regarding generic price action of a coin, followed by the general phases that an alt-season should go through to reach its full shape – and (anti-)climax:

1. An overall bearish alt market
2. A stable or (not too) bullish BTC
3. Accumulation
4. Reversing markets
5. FOMO from inexperienced traders
6. Lots of exposure in (social) media/IRL
7. New money coming into crypto
8. Even more FOMO from new money

Essentially, the primary reason you can profit from alt-season is when less experienced traders than yourself enter (new money) or already trade the market. Therefore, it’s crucial to monitor the signs as well as these phases carefully when alt-season seems to be taking shape.

So, what should you look out of and monitor? Below we have listed the topics we normally watch on a continuous basis to evaluate the status of an alt-season.

• BTC showing stable sideways or bullish momentum (at least not too bearish)
• Overall crypto and specifically alt volume is increasing
• Biggest alts: showing signs of (early) reversal
• Alts general: accumulation/consolidation is showing
• Sentiment is changing:
  • Moving away from Depression and/or Disbelief
  • Twitter shows more bullishness
  • More positive news in MSM (that could serve as catalyst)
• Interest and attention in increasing from new traders (new money)
  • Google trends for crypto related terms
  • Twitter followers increase
• Other statistics

Obviously, as these are signs to keep track of an imminent alt-season, keep as an important reminder that the end can be monitor when any of the above signs are showing weakness.

So, based on the signs discussed in the previous lesson, it seems alt-season is here. So, what should you do now? We would like to stress some points for consideration to get the most out of this alt-season:

1. Do NOT buy green candles, don’t FOMO in, avoid market buying a coin
2. If alt-season is about to start, there is still PLENTY of opportunity
3. Carefully and patiently looks for coins in accumulation and coins with good setups
4. Scale in with partial buys; avoid over-exposing your capital too early to the possibility of alt-season
5. Sense market sentiment – is everybody just hoping for an alt-season or are the signs really there?
6. There is no harm in daily checking the signs listed before – reversal is always lurking
7. Sense your emotions; if you are too eager, too greedy, too revengeful (getting your losses back), consider moving away from your laptop or mobile and regain a clear mind

This video gives you an introduction on strategies with regards to alt-seasons, making use of three clearly different approaches to trading alt-seasons. We argue the importance of having a strategy, and emphasize why so many beginning traders do not have a strategy implemented for themselves.

First, we’ll discuss the crucial elements of any strategy, which we argue should be included when creating your own:

• Your input (time, money, etc), expectations, and goals
• Analysis of the market(s) – TA/FA
• Preferred assets to trade
• Risk management (storage, portfolio, security, exchanges)
• Trading style (time, setup, etc)
• When to enter a position
• When to exit a position (both in profit ánd loss)
• Reflection upon yourself and the market (sentiment)
• Documentation (logging all things relevant to analyze)
• Evaluating your (trading) strategy – improving is key

Next, we continue discussing the elements discussed by reviewing them again the three strategies used in the previous lesson. This is done based on several characteristics we find to be important in evaluating which type of alt-season strategy would fit your character best. 

These characteristics are:

• Time needed (daily)
• Scope
• TA (Charting)
• FA (research)
• Flexibility
• Chances of a Pump
• Importance decision making
• Stress

This framework might give you some guidance in defining your own alt-season strategy.

Whereas we argue determining and executing a strategy is key to trading an alt-season successfully, we would like to remind you of below pointers, to make sure you will define a realistic and manageable strategy for yourself.

1. Ask yourself: 
   1. What do you expect from an alt-season (input vs output)?
   2. What are the things you absolutely want to prevent?
2. Review the implications versus your expectations: you can’t have it all…
3. Prioritize and keep it realistic – you will make mistakes
4. Managing positions will ask for your continuous attention and time
5. Execute and stick with your strategy – it gives guidance and clarity
6. Do allow tolerance if the market or your emotions require it
7. Make sure the strategy fits your character
8. Have an alt-season exit strategy ready

First, we share some reminders on the condition when trading alt-seasons (it is always important to remain critical). It is followed by a simple explanation of re-investment strategy. We approach it in a straightforward way, where we argue two things are relevant:

1. Get a low as possible entry
2. Taking partial profits on the way up

Finally, we suggest – if there is truly an alt-season – to keep a small part of your position (your “moonbag”), just in case the coin in question does a unexpected and unprecendented move upwards.

Overall, as also discussed in the previous chapter, it make sense to roll profits from one coin to the other, to create a so-called ROI multiplier. A method we structurally apply to benefit optimally from bull-markets is to take out half of the position when price has doubled.

Essentially, by selling half on a double, you take out your initial investment, meaning the rest is “profit money”, and therefore you run the position without any risk. With the money from your sell, you can either take a position in another coin, keep the BTC in (cold) storage, or cash out to fiat.

The remainder of the video we’ll use a theoretical case on why selling half on a double will significantly increase your ROI, compared with hodling a coin.

As you might have figured, selling half on a double is just one of the endless variations of selling your positions. However, we argue there are significant advantages of selling half on a double than for example selling ‘third on a triple’, which we emphasize using the same example as in the previous lesson.

Alternatively, below are suggestions for selling your positions – be it after selling half on a double:

• Sell another half with each additional double – 4x, 8x, 16x etc from entry (so you take out profits the size of your investment)
• Sell a quarter when you hit 3x, an eighth when it hits 4x, a sixteenth when it hits 5x, etc
• Just #hodl and sell until e.g. price does a confirmed break-down from DEMA50, or any other indicator/price level you deem as relevant

Keep in mind however, that each of above options will have its own positives/negatives; review them against your trading strategy. Make sure you keep your strategy aligned with your character at all times.

As always, it is very important to add some context. You take a position to trade to achieve a profit –> that also means you need to sell it when the time is right. But how do you know when the time is right? That is of course the key question to which many cannot give an answer. Nobody is able to time the market perfectly. Therefore, we repeat the ‘certainties’ of alt-season.

That is why we remind ourselves that regardless of applying TA to determine an optimal exit point, it is also about exiting in profit. And if profit is not possible, exit with minimal loss on your side to maintain maximal capital to take other trades. Apart from TA, we argue the importance of the psychological effect of exiting in profit. Especially when you are a beginning trader and have faced double digit drawdowns, increasing your capital will yield confidence in the way you are trading. Of course, the ‘purist trader’ might disagree with this, but who cares in the end? Profit is profit, there is always time to optimize your exit based on TA… lets first make sure you dare to execute, and not hold on.

There is no ultimate “one fits all” selling strategy that applies to all cryptocurrencies, since there are thousands of coins, that differ in marketcap, availability, volume, and subsequently how price action prints. It is crucial to understand what category coin you are dealing, and what history has shown is ‘common selling price action’. Then, you are able to adjust your selling strategy. You will quickly find out, if you apply your strategy, how well it fits.

This lesson will give an overview of the warning signs we argue to provide consistently reliable information whether bullsih momentum is slacking.

The most obvious warning signs you will from price action. Whether these are reaching new (swing) highs, bearish price patterns, Fibonacci extension levels being reached, price already tells you plenty about the coin’s current momentum.

EMAs can give your valuable signs about an imminent correction. Especially when using several EMAs and combining it versus price action, this would be one of the simplest indicators to apply in dertermining whether to hold on or sell your position.

Volume paints a clear picture as well. Do you see increasing or declining volume? To what extent are price increase supported by solid volume? Know how to recognize the patterns of volume versus price.

Another indicator is the Relative Strength Index: it will paint a picture about the underlying momentum of price. Are new highs in price also confirmed in an increasing RSI? With indicators like RSI, knowing how to spot divergences is a crucial elements in not ending up surprised by a corection.

Related to RSI, is the Stoch RSI. While the indicator is calculated differently, the general purpose is similar.
We advise to watch the RSI video as well, since it discusses topics not repeated in this video.

When it concerns underlying momentum, the On Balance Volume (OBV) Oscillator can offer useful information with regards to volume. It can provide additional confirmation (or rejection) when momentum seems to be slacking.

When reviewing trade setups, an important element is confluence, where some or maybe all discussed warning signs might come together. The more confluence you spot for your psitions, the stronger the warning signs, and the higher the probability a correction might be imminent – and a (partial) sell a logical decision.

As always, we want to share some points for consideration you might want to include in your selling strategy. Simply because translating this theory to the practice is not always that straightforward. We don’t want you to get lost in the moment.

• Test, verify, and validate every warning sign against your trading system and optimize it
• The higher the TF, the higher the probability of warning signs materializing
  • Use Weekly/Daily as your base charts
  • Use lower timeframes to fine-tune your strategy
• Check historical price action of your coin to see which indicators were determinant in signaling a reversal
• Suggestion: don’t sell 100% of your position in a parabolic trend, because you never know what (additional) pump may occur
• Reminder: every sell in profit increases your portfolio