
This is a practical course. We assume that you are good in excel and accounting. With this assumption, we are starting this course with an overview of the company "Praj Industries ltd." whose financial forecasting will be done in this course. Please download all the relevant working files in this lecture.
Explore how ethanol is produced from sugarcane, shaped by cane quality, seasonality, and sugar prices, and contrast first and second generation technologies in India.
Explore the ethanol industry, including production from corn and sugar, major producers like the US and Brazil, and blend standards from 10 percent to flex-fuel vehicles up to 85 percent.
Learn to analyze quarterly consolidated income statements, assess segment performance and margins, and interpret book-to-bill and order trends to project future profitability.
Learn to extract quarterly revenue data from investor presentations, build a revenue profile, and analyze geographic and segmental mix, order book, and backlog.
Analyze key developments affecting equity research, including domestic policy shifts, alcohol bans and ethanol supply, and international demand from Argentina, Australia, and Thailand.
Analyze quarterly standalone and subsidiary performance to reveal margin trends, top-line drivers, and assessment of sustainability in future quarters.
Link the income statement to quarterly numbers, validate historical five-year data, and evaluate when DCF projections are feasible, noting quarterly linkages and policy-driven variability.
Practice calculating total revenue by entering and cross-checking numbers from press releases and income statements, analyzing quarterly figures, expenses, taxes, and industry linkages.
Punch the consolidated and subsidiary balance sheet items, compare debt differences, and apply the income statement approach to the balance sheet, detailing cash, loans, borrowings, and capital work in progress.
Analyze quarterly margins to identify drivers of performance, compare subsidiaries and consolidated results across 16 quarters, and assess margin sustainability and implications for future revenue and cost trends.
Explore punching consolidated cash flow items by linking operating and investing cash flows to the balance sheet, analyzing capex, asset sales, and financing effects to assess free cash flow.
Analyze historical petrol consumption and demand patterns in India with year-on-year growth data since 2011. Project production and demand using blending patterns, considering rising two-wheelers, four-wheelers, and disposable income.
Project ethanol demand by applying 5%, 10%, and 20% blending to expected consumption and production. Assess how policy targets, domestic production, and market demand shape near-term projections.
Explore how to build a console assumption sheet to model growth across geographies, assess domestic versus international markets, and conduct sensitivity analysis of order flows and industry dynamics.
Explore projections of revenues by analyzing the consolidated order book, segment revenues, and the execution ratio, with emphasis on emerging markets and year on year growth.
Analyze revenue projections by linking the order book to expected execution, using book-to-bill ratios across segments and emerging markets to estimate future revenue growth.
Learn to project operating costs and margins using top-down or bottom-up methods, assess commodity cycles, employee costs, and line-item factors to forecast cost as a percentage of sales.
Analyze operating margins by interpreting management guidance toward high-teens margins. Compare top-down and bottom-up cost projections and assess the impact of cost drivers and forex on profitability.
Learn to calculate forex gain or loss by analyzing a company’s usd-denominated export revenue, hedging activity, and exchange-rate assumptions to assess exposure and impact.
Explore how to assess forex gain or loss by analyzing exchange rate movements, hedging exposure, unhedged export revenue, and its impact on operating margin and valuation.
Project other income by modeling cash and current investments, linking it to the balance sheet and income statement, and applying conservative assumptions about interest rates and stock market returns.
Learn to calculate depreciation and relate it to tangible assets and balance sheets. Project depreciation across years using capital expenditures and maintenance capex data from the annual report.
Project the projection of amortization by modeling maintenance and capital expenditures, depreciation, and intangible assets. Link these to the balance sheet and cash flows while assessing finance costs and interest coverage.
Explore projecting finance costs through long-term borrowing, interest rate assumptions, and calculations of interest expenditure, linking balance sheet changes to taxes and profitability.
Learn to project other income statement items by analyzing taxes, minority interest, and their impact on diluted shares, dividends, and net profit.
Project each balance sheet line item using days-based methods and 365-day conventions to forecast liquidity and cash flow. Incorporate short-term loans and work in progress to refine the projections.
Calculate trade payables by converting days to payables using sales figures, and project the balance sheet and cash flow by linking receivables, cash, and short-term loans and advances.
Learn to project the cash flow statement by integrating operating, investing, and financing activities, reconcile beginning and ending cash balances, and assess dividends, debt, and taxes for equity analysis.
This lecture teaches how to draw a one-year rolling PE chart by collecting monthly data, calculating the 12-month difference, and plotting the results to interpret stock valuation trends.
Draw a 1-year rolling PE chart and evaluate stock valuations using price multiples around 16x, considering order flows, margins, and net/international investor effects to set 1-year forward targets.
Learn to draw a two-year rolling P/E chart and apply revenue growth, margins, and forward P/E to assess stock valuation, set target prices, and compare with peers.
Develop a consolidated summary sheet by linking balance sheet, income statement, and cash flows, and assess liquidity, margins, and key line items like net revenue, gross profit, and PBT.
Explore cash flow analysis: investing and financing activities, net cash, and opening balances, with currency effects. Learn to link income statements to balance sheets and assess liquidity and valuation.
Welcome to the Equity Research & Equity Analyst Program—a comprehensive, hands-on course designed to prepare you for a career in equity research, investment banking, or financial analysis. Using Praj Industries Ltd, a leader in ethanol technology and engineering solutions, this program walks you through every stage of financial modeling, company analysis, and valuation. From understanding the business model to projecting financials and estimating share value, you will learn how real analysts think, research, and present investment recommendations.
Whether you're a student or a working professional, this course equips you with job-ready skills in Excel-based modeling, financial statement interpretation, and sector forecasting.
Section 1: Introduction
This foundational section introduces Praj Industries Ltd, its ethanol-driven business model, and its role in the broader renewable energy ecosystem. You'll learn how the company manufactures ethanol, its market segments, and how government policies and emerging markets are fueling growth. We also provide an industry-level view of ethanol’s strategic importance to India’s energy independence, laying the groundwork for sector-specific modeling.
Section 2: Financial Statement Analysis
Here, you’ll roll up your sleeves and start working with Praj’s quarterly and annual reports. You'll input (or "punch") data from both standalone and consolidated financials into your Excel model. The section includes management analysis, income statement breakdowns, balance sheet reviews, and linkage-building between statements. You’ll also learn how to reverse-engineer FY16 cash flows when full reports aren't available—just like real analysts do.
Section 3: Ethanol Demand and Order Flow Projections
Analyze the macro and micro demand drivers for ethanol in India. You'll forecast petrol consumption trends, understand government mandates for ethanol blending, and estimate how these trends translate into new order flows for Praj and its competitors. Using data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), you’ll develop demand models and run sensitivity analyses.
Section 4: Brewery and Emerging Market Order Flow Projections
Extend your demand modeling to Praj’s other business lines, including breweries and global markets. Learn how to use assumption sheets to model new order inflows and analyze how global expansion in ethanol policies may impact Praj’s financials in the coming years.
Section 5: Projection of Revenues
Move from top-line forecasting to a detailed revenue model. You'll project sales, estimate operating costs, calculate margins, and adjust for variables like foreign exchange fluctuations and other income sources. This section also includes projections of depreciation, amortization, and finance costs—all critical for building a reliable income statement forecast.
Section 6: Projection of Balance Sheet
This section teaches you to project all critical components of the balance sheet, such as assets, liabilities, and equity. You'll also learn to calculate working capital elements like trade payables and build a fully integrated balance sheet that connects with your income statement and cash flow projections.
Section 7: Projection of Cash Flows
Cash flow modeling is essential for valuation and risk analysis. You’ll learn how to project cash flows using the indirect method, linking them to the income statement and balance sheet. This section will help you evaluate free cash flow, a key driver of valuation in equity research.
Section 8: Projections of Equity Value Per Share
Once the model is complete, you’ll use it to derive valuation multiples. This includes drawing 1-year and 2-year rolling PE charts to assess relative valuation. You'll explore how to estimate intrinsic value and understand the valuation metrics used by buy-side and sell-side analysts.
Section 9: Preparing Summary Sheet
Your final step is to compile all insights into a one-page Equity Research Summary Sheet—just like real analysts do. This includes financial highlights, valuation, recommendations, and key investment risks. It’s a perfect takeaway for interviews, reports, or client presentations.
By the end of the Equity Research & Equity Analyst Program, you will have built a fully integrated financial model, conducted industry demand forecasts, and created a valuation summary for Praj Industries. This isn’t just a learning experience—it’s a portfolio-ready project that showcases your capabilities as a future equity research analyst.