
Learn to infer and measure causal impact on time series using Google's causal impact package, with Python and Pandas basics, pre and post intervention periods, and model inputs.
Discover practical statistical analysis tools for beginners in data science hacks using Python and pandas with Google Causal Impact, without deep statistical theory or hypothesis testing.
Explore how response variable, a time series represented by Y and affected by events such as campaigns or product releases, combines linear trend, seasonal patterns, and randomness to aid prediction.
Use the control variable as a good predictor of Y, time-ordered and unaffected by the event, potentially multi-variable, minimizing residuals across pre and post periods.
Explore how to implement a time index and pre/post period inputs to structure a time oriented dataset for causal impact analysis in pandas.
Code Along Example with Artificial Toy DataSet
Adding Linear and Seasonal Trend to previous example
Analysing Volkswagen Pollution Emission Scandal impact over Volkswagen stocks
Interpret results from a causal impact analysis by comparing actual and predicted outcomes, examining point and cumulative effects, absolute and relative effects, and p-values to assess significance.
Welcome to our Google Causal Impact Course.
This course I'll teach you how to use the google's package Causal Impact in your on job or personal projects.
The Causal Impact model developed by Google works by fitting a bayesian structural time series model to observed data which is later used for predicting what the results would be had no intervention happened in a given time period. The idea is to used the predictions of the fitted model (depicted in blue) as a reference to what probably would had been observed with no intervention taking place.
After this course you will have a powerful tool, to measure (with statistical significance):
* The extra number of sales / app downloads / clicks / web site visits caused by a marketing campaign
* The ROI of a Marketing Campaign
* The effect of a promotion over demand
* Any change of behavior in a series, caused by a known event