
Explore the customer lifetime value predictive model (repurchase model) with Python, forecasting transaction probability, retention, purchase volume, and loyalty to power cross-sell strategies.
You will learn the transaction data and Python codes used in this course. Check the attached files in the resource of the section and download them!
Understand the customer lifetime value concept, how historical data and machine learning predict future purchases and active periods, and how to rank customers for targeted promotions.
Learn to generate features from transaction data to build a customer lifetime value model in Python with the lifetimes package, including theory, validation, and business value.
Learn features used in customer lifetime value modeling with Python, from transaction data to aggregation, decide on unit price and quantity, and aggregate records to customer level.
Explore features for CLV modeling, including frequency, recency, and tenure, and learn to generate additional metrics like six-month frequency and recent value to boost model accuracy.
Perform data exploration and cleaning with Python to prepare transaction data. Use pandas to read data into a data frame, handle missing values, and engineer recency and frequency features.
Install the Anaconda distribution on Windows, Mac, or Linux, then install essential packages for data exploration, data preparation, and CRM model building, using Spyder or notebook and handling third-party data.
Learn to download and install the Anaconda software, use Spyder as the editor, and install lifetime and LightGBM to build customer lifetime value models with data preparation.
Learn Python-based data exploration for CLV modeling by loading a CSV with pandas, inspecting top five records and shape, listing column features, and preparing data for visualization and lifetimes modeling.
Practice data analysis with pandas to explore a dataset, inspect data types, and prepare features like recency and customer age while handling missing values and dropping records with missing ids.
Use pandas to inspect data types and missing values, assess missing-value proportions, and apply imputation or removal. Prepare customer-level data by filtering and aggregating for CLV modeling.
Explore data preparation for clv modeling in Python: check data shape, handle missing values, filter by positive quantity, compute monetary spend, convert invoice dates, and run describe for statistics.
Generate clv features from transaction data using the lifetimes package and pandas. Build a dataset with customer id, end date, and t, focusing on frequency, age, recency, and monetary value.
Explore the BG/NBD framework for customer lifetime value, linking data preparation and features (frequency, tenure, recency) to a Poisson process with gamma and beta distributions for retention and purchases.
Explore how the Poisson distribution, with lambda as the transaction rate, models purchase frequency and repurchase probability for customer lifetime value in Python CLV modeling.
Explore how gamma distribution models customer transaction rates, deriving lambda via likelihood estimation to predict Poisson-based repurchases and future purchase counts.
Explore how Poisson–gamma and beta–geometric models link transaction rates, churn, and customer lifetime value in Python, showing how lambda, p, and the corresponding likelihoods shape predictions.
Explore the CLV model's statistical background by linking Poisson, geometric, and gamma distributions to a likelihood framework that estimates churn probability and future spend from purchase frequency.
Learn to build a BG/NBD model with the lifetimes package in Python, fitting the model to data using frequency, recency, and time since first transaction to predict future purchases.
Build a customer lifetime value model with python's lifetimes, fitting using frequency and recency data. Analyze the frequency–recency matrix plot to identify valuable customers and the importance of recency.
Explain the probability_alive_matrix within a customer lifetime value model, focusing on churn risk, active probability, and how recency and frequency drive purchase likelihood.
Apply the CLV model to forecast daily purchase quantities for each customer using frequency, recency, and age, and create a 'predicted_purchase' feature to rank customers by expected purchases tomorrow.
Validate the CLV model with a period_transaction plot that compares predictions to actual values during the calibration period (training data).
Partition the data by time into calibration and holdout periods, add validation columns, and fit the BGF model on pre-date data; then compare predictions to holdout purchases using calibration_purchases_holdout_purchases plot.
Plot the historical probability of being alive for a specific customer using the plot_history_alive function from the lifetime plotting package, based on past transactions and a customer ID.
Select customers with at least one repeat purchase using pandas to create a returning customer summary and focus analysis on this targeted group.
Explore gamma-gamma modeling and its connection to the customer lifetime value model, focusing on predicting monetary value per transaction using the Python lifetime package.
Fit the gamma-gamma model with the Python lifetime package to estimate each customer's average transaction value, then use the predicted value to inform the customer lifetime value calculation.
Compare parametric and non-parametric CLV modeling with Python’s lifetime package, using recency, frequency and age features; contrast Poisson–beta with non-parametric methods such as gradient boosting and random forests.
Explore enriching customer lifetime value modeling by integrating score and discount data with transaction data, creating features like recency, frequency, and spend in Python, and comparing parametric versus nonparametric approaches.
Develop a flexible, nonparametric customer lifetime value model in Python by performing data exploration, feature generation (duration, late time, early time, frequency), and careful train-test partitioning with boosting techniques.
Learn to build a CLV model in Python by creating frequency, recency, and three-month frequency features, merging datasets by customer ID, pairing third-party score and discount, and evaluating boosting models.
Explore how gradient boosting builds tree models to predict residuals and refine forecasts, using Python implementations like XGBoost and LightGBM for customer lifetime value modeling.
Apply xgboost and gradient boosting to build a customer lifetime value model in python, using features like recency, frequency, customer age, and external data, with train-test split and mse evaluation.
Apply the xgboost regressor to build a customer lifetime value model in Python, train and evaluate with mse and rmse, and analyze key driver importance using gain and weight plots.
Learn how to apply XGBoost for a customer lifetime value model in Python, assess feature importance using gain and weight, and inspect top drivers to guide feature selection.
Learn to build a CLV model with LightGBM booster in Python, comparing LGBM regressor and classifier, tuning max_depth and learning rate, using fit with MSE objective.
Partition the data into training and testing sets (70 percent training, 30 percent testing) with X1, X2 features and y target, and monitor performance with a watchlist during Lightgbm model training to build a customer lifetime value prediction.
Build a customer lifetime value predictive model with Python using LightGBM, training with a watch list and two thousand two hundred trees, and evaluate with MSE and feature importance.
If you wish to start the data analytics career or apply machine learning expertise into business, this is the right course you must choose!
Here I will provide a series of lectures on a practical marketing AI model -- 'Customer Life Value Model', or CLV model. The method is also sometimes called the 'repurchase modeling'. I would say what you will learn is a very useful AI forecasting model for marketing campaign and promotion. Because the CLV models I am teaching in this course are currently widely used in retail banking, insurance, and other sales-related industries. Why? Since it helps business owners select the most valuable customers to get their business better and better!
The value of my course is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
1. The CLV models can be quickly created because the process and features for building models are very concise and efficient.
2. One can utilize the model to predict the customer's purchase behavior or purchase preference for a specific merchandise in a given future time period.
3. The CLV model can be used to predict the probability of customers' repurchase behavior.
4. The CLV model can be used to analyze the activity and loyalty of different customers -- help you solve customer retention problems.
5. Based on the output of the CLV model, business owners can calculate and rank the customer lifetime value.
The objective of the course is to let you master how to effectively use the big data and AI algorithms for intelligent marketing. For example, if you can successfully predict who will buy the commodities in the next month based on historical transaction data, then you would effectively apply some market strategies into these customers, like by launching advertisements, applying recommender systems for ‘cross sales’ or ‘cross recommendation’ At the same time, The business owners will also realize from the model's prediction who are not interested in the goods or services they are providing, perhaps they can adopt some other marketing strategies or promotion to make these silent customers become more 'active' or 'waked up'.
In addition to the business value you can absorb from the course, I also teach you some practical statistical, machine learning and AI algorithm knowledge and skills, combined with the Python programming coding. This mainly covers:
1. Various statistical distribution functions such Geometric / Negative Binomial used in the CLV models and interpretations.
2. Lifetime package in Python to create BG/NBD CLV model.
3. Different analytical and graphics tools in Lifetime package including implementation methods and interpretation.
4. Data exploration, cleaning and feature generation for CLV models with Python programming.
5. Model feature selection, feature engineering, cross validation and performance tracking.
6. Lecture on how to apply the third party data into CLV modeling.
7. Introduction of gradient boost tree algorithms’ framework and implementation including Xgboost and Lightgbm algorithm into CLV modeling.