
Explore traditional credit models, including credit scoring and credit rating, focusing on ordinal rankings for individuals and small businesses, no cross-default for retail borrowers, and FICO scores 300 to 850.
Examine traditional credit rating models, including issuer-paid ratings by S&P and Moody’s, the impact of economic conditions on default risk, and the short-term versus long-term stability versus accuracy in ratings.
Explore the structural model of credit risk, rooted in balance-sheet fundamentals, where default occurs when asset value falls below debt, and contrast it with the exogenous reduced form model.
Explore a structural credit risk model based on the Black-Scholes framework, linking asset value movements to distance from default and default probability through ND2 and European option concepts.
Learn to compute default probability and the present value of expected loss in a structural credit risk model using E1, E2, and the normal distribution.
Apply the Altman Z-score to predict bankruptcy of companies within two years, using five weighted balance sheet ratios.
Analyze how z-scores reveal bankruptcy risk across seven US airlines, highlighting AMR's 2011 bankruptcy, Alaska Air Group's resilience, JetBlue's liquidity-driven survival, and the contrast between legacy and low-cost carriers.
Explore how the Z score measures bankruptcy risk using a case study of seven airlines, tracing deregulation, price competition, external shocks, and fuel costs on profitability.
Analyze Altman Z-score using real airline cases to assess bankruptcy risk, credit ratings, and the limits of predictive models; explore investment vs junk ratings across major carriers.
Assess how credit is evaluated and extended in large corporates, with parent-level approvals and local extensions, and identify red flags, annual and interim reviews, cross-border risk, internal ratings shaping decisions.
Assess credit risk by cash flows as the primary determinant, alongside net worth, equity infusion, group borrowing, liquidity, and parent support, using leverage and debt to ebitda and interest coverage.
Identify red flags in credit modelling with an early warning checklist covering operations shutdown, core business, industry downturns, currency exposure, debt spikes, supplier credit, bank lines, and timely debt service.
Assess unhedged foreign currency exposure and RBI-driven provisioning for likely losses. Relate how EBIT-based loss percentages translate into basis point provisions and higher risk weights.
Identify a company's working capital needs by analyzing current assets and liabilities, focusing on inventories and trade receivables, and limit fund-based lending to the calculated gap up to 12.2 million.
Learn how banks analyze a company's numbers in a spreadsheet, focusing on margins, EBITDA, revenue drivers, and working capital changes to assess credit risk.
Explore how lenders evaluate credit risk through cash flow and liquidity, and assess parent support, including full, partial, or no guarantees, plus standby letter of credit and head office backing.
Explain standby letter of credit (sblc) as a way out in default, where a parent bank guarantees a foreign affiliate’s debt with head office sblc, ensuring payment to local obligor.
Internal ratings help lenders and risk officers assess credit beyond external ratings. Analysts analyze and forward credit evaluations to decision makers, using parent or subsidiary ratings and debt rating models.
Credit risk infers the possibility of a loss emerging from a borrower’s downfall to pay back a loan or meet contractual commitments. Conventionally, it pertains to the risk arising from lenders’ inability to return the owed interest and principal, impacting the cash flows and increasing assemblage costs.
When any lender extends loans such as mortgages, credit cards, or other similar loans, there is an avoidable risk that the borrower will not repay the loan amounts. Furthermore, if a company offers such credit to the customer, there’s the same risk that the customer will not pay back. It also incorporates other related risks, such as that the bond issuer may not make payment at the time of maturity and the risk occurring out of the incapacity of the insurance company to compensate for the claim. A higher level of credit risk in a profitable market will correlate with the elevated borrowing cost. Because of this, it is evaluated technically to mitigate such risk to a certain level.
We will start with a brief introduction to measures of credit risk modeling. Understanding the credit risk and how it is being measured is important before we into the meat of the module. Then, we will talk about traditional credit models in length. And in the next section, we will give you practical examples of traditional credit models. In the same section, we will also talk about the structural model of credit risk. Since understanding the theory isn’t enough, we will also take an example of the structural model of credit risk. Next, we will teach you Altman Z-score. In this section, you will learn about Altman Z-score and how you can calculate the Z-score. Then, we will talk about the Z-score of the airline industry. And then, we will also take a practical example of the US airline industry and discuss the airline industry Z-score. Then, under the same section, we will talk about the credit rating description of the airlines. Now, we will directly go into credit analysis. Under credit analysis, you will learn credit modeling, the evaluation metric in credit modeling, and also the early warning checklist in credit modeling. Then, we will teach you UFCE and WC Credit Modeling. Next, we will look at the financial statement analysis (the income statement, the balance sheet, the cash flow statement) in detail. Finally, we will talk about ways out analysis and internal ratings. In the end, we will show you the reference files to end the module. You need to keep in mind that this training will work if you do the work.
Curriculum
1. Introduction
2. Traditional Credit Models
3. Example of Traditional Credit Model
4. Example of Structural Model of Credit Risk
5. Altman Z-Score
6. Credit Analysis
7. UFCE and WC Credit Modelling
8. Financial Statement
9. Ways Out Analysis and Internal Ratings