
Explore decimal odds in football betting, compute payouts by multiplying stake by decimal odds, and convert odds into win probabilities for Arsenal, Wolfsburg, and Barcelona.
Apply Poisson probabilities to estimate penalties in Barcelona vs Real Madrid and total goals, using lambda as the mean and Google Sheets Poisson.dist for calculations.
Apply the Poisson distribution to turn home and away expected goals into correct score probabilities for El Clasico, normalize them, and compare Poisson estimates with bookmaker probabilities while noting limitations.
An easy to follow, fun course to understand the fundamental concepts of calculating odds and probabilities for a multitude of football match markets.
Specifically we´ll look at
1. Converting Odds to probability and adding or removing extra probability margin.
2. Calculating other primary and secondary markets from correct score input odds
3. Calculating expected goals from correct score inputs
4. Breaking down expected goals using real life statistics
5. Using the poisson distribution to calculate probabilities
6. Using different sources of real life data to calculate player props
We´ll apply all of these techniques to one of biggest games in recent times, el clasico between Barcelona and Real Madrid back in 2018. This game features some the most well known players to play the game and so you´ll have the opportunity to price up some exceptional player props!
By the end of this course you will have understood and developed skills to calculate hundreds of football
match markets yourself, using the same techniques used by real life sportbooks.
This will help you understand the full process of pricing up main, secondary, special markets and player markets and will empower you and use and develop your own techniques on any other match from any league around the world!