Stock trading, investment with AI, Perplexity, Googlefinance

In this introductory video, I explore the foundational concepts of the stock market. Starting with an explanation of what a stock or share represents, I describe how owning shares means part ownership of a company and the rights it entails. I then introduce the stock market as a platform for companies to raise funds and for investors to trade shares. The video covers the two major stock exchanges in India—NSE and BSE—and explains their functions. Additionally, I touch upon how the stock market serves as a barometer for a country’s economic growth and stability.

• What is a stock?

• Understanding the stock market

• Functions of the stock market

• Indian stock exchanges: NSE and BSE

In this video, I delve into the world of stock market participants, including retail investors, institutional investors like mutual funds, hedge funds, and insurance companies, as well as the crucial role of regulators like SEBI. I explain how these players influence market trends and ensure market integrity. No specific action is requested from viewers in this segment

• Stock Market Participants

• Role of brokers

• Regulators in the market

In this video, I explain the different types of stock market orders and their practical applications. You'll learn about:

• Market Orders: Buy or sell at the best available price without setting a limit.

• Limit Orders: Set a specific price to buy or sell, ensuring better control but with no guarantee of execution.

• Stop-Loss Orders: Automatically sell a stock to limit losses or secure profits based on predefined price levels.

By understanding these order types, you can make informed trading decisions and minimize risks. Don't forget to practice placing these orders to gain confidence.

In this session, I delve into essential trading terminology to help you better understand stock market dynamics:

• Bid and Ask: Learn how buyers and sellers set prices in this auction-driven marketplace.

• Volume: Understand the importance of trading volumes and their role in identifying momentum stocks.

• Opening and Closing Bell: Discover the significance of market opening and closing times and their impact on daily trading sentiment.

• Gap Up & Gap Down: Explore how market optimism or pessimism overnight influences the opening prices.

Use these concepts to analyze market trends and news more effectively.

In this session, I explore market sentiments and their impact on the stock market. You'll learn:

• Bull and Bear Phases: Understand optimism (bull) and pessimism (bear) in market trends.

• Drivers of Market Sentiment: Analyze how global trends, local events, sector-specific developments, and stock-specific news shape market behavior.

• Historical Market Movements: Examine how events like the dot-com bubble, mortgage crisis, and government policies influenced market cycles.

• Key Takeaways for Investors: Learn the importance of staying informed about global and local events, industry news, and market trends to make better decisions.

This session concludes the first module on stock market basics and dynamics.

In this session, I dive into the participants of the stock market and their roles, providing a foundational understanding of how the market functions. Key takeaways include:

• Retail Investors: Individuals like you and me investing small amounts directly into the stock market.

• Institutional Investors: Organizations such as mutual funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) that pool and invest funds on behalf of others.

• Brokers: Platforms like Zerodha, Upstox, and ICICI Direct that provide an interface for retail and institutional investors to trade.

• Regulators: SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) ensures fair trading practices, monitoring companies, mutual funds, and other market participants.

• Indexes: Represent market trends and sentiments, such as Nifty 50 and Sensex in India, and S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite globally.

• DMAT Accounts: Digital accounts maintained by NSDL and CDSL to securely store your shares, even if accessed through brokers like Zerodha or ICICI Direct.

In this section, I discuss industries and sectors:

• Industry: Specific classification based on the work a company does (e.g., IT services, chemicals).

• Sector: Broader grouping of similar industries (e.g., technology, healthcare).

• Examples:

  • FMCG: ITC, HUL

  • IT: Infosys

We also highlight the impact of macroeconomic factors (e.g., recession, policy changes) on industries and the importance of diversification to manage risk and protect your portfolio.

In this lecture, I discuss how to leverage AI tools like Perplexity and Notebook LM to thoroughly analyze a company before making any investment decisions. I emphasize the importance of understanding the business model, financial stability, valuation, and inherent risks associated with the company and its industry. I also outline key metrics to evaluate, such as profit margins, debt levels, and competitive positioning. As we move forward, I will provide prompts and examples to help you apply this analysis effectively. I encourage you to engage with these tools and insights to make informed investment choices.

This lecture has following aspects covered:

•    Leveraging AI for Investment Decisions

•    Evaluating Business Models

•    Analyzing Financial Stability

•    Identifying Risk Factors

•    Operational Insights with AI
  

In this video, I discussed how to evaluate a company by focusing on its business model, management quality, and competitive positioning, using CAMS, a India-based company, as a case study. I emphasize the importance of understanding revenue streams, with 86-87% of CAMS' business coming from mutual funds, and highlight its strong market position with a 68% share in the registrar and transfer agent business.

We evaluate the management team, noting their transparency and effective communication during challenging times. As we move forward, I encourage you to download the provided document with prompts to guide your research and help you assess whether this company fits into your investment portfolio.

In the next video, we will delve into the financial aspects of the company.

This lecture has following aspects covered:

• Introduction to Company Evaluation

• Evaluating Management Quality

• Assessing Competitive Positioning

• Market Dynamics Overview

• Competition

  
  

In this lecture, I discuss the importance of evaluating a company's business model and financial strength, focusing on profitability metrics, balance sheet strength, and cash flow analysis. I highlighted that our example company, shows exceptional profitability with a 9-year average return on equity of 36% and a return on invested capital of 55%. The balance sheet indicates minimal leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.08 and a current ratio of 3.36, demonstrating strong financial stability.

We discuss the company's robust cash flow growth, with a CAGR of 15%. I encourage you to replicate this analysis process for any company you are considering, ensuring you understand each aspect thoroughly.

We cover following aspects:

• Connect the Business Model

• Debt Levels and Cash Flow

• Financial Stability Assessment

• Cash Flow Analysis

• Free Cash Flow Insights

  
  

In this lecture, we discussed the valuation of CAMS, our example company. We evaluate its current market valuation against intrinsic values derived from various methods, including PE ratio analysis, price to book, dividend discount model, and discounted cash flow analysis. We derive key insights to evaluate, if the company offers margin of safety at the prices at which it is working today.

We cover following aspects:

• Connect the valuations for Business Model

• Industry Comparison

• Price to Book Analysis

• Discounted Cash Flow

In this lecture, I discuss how to evaluate a company, particularly focusing on assessing risks such as industry risk, regulatory challenges, competitive threats, management risk, and financial risk. For CAMS, which derives 86-87% of its revenue from the domestic mutual fund industry,

We discuss the significant dependence on this sector and the ongoing fee compression due to regulatory changes. We conclude that while CAMS exhibits strong operational performance, the high valuations make it a risky investment at the current price. I encourage viewers to run their own evaluations based on the prompts provided.

These are the key aspects, we cover:

• Evaluating Company Risks

• Industry Dependence Concerns

• Management Changes Impact

• Overall Risk Assessment

• Investment Decision Framework

  
  

In this video, I explain how to leverage Notebook LM to analyze a stock comprehensively. You'll learn about:

• Gathering Sources: Import essential documents like annual reports, quarterly results, and company websites to build a robust understanding of a stock.

• Asking Targeted Questions: Use Notebook LM to extract insights from uploaded documents, such as understanding the business model, revenue growth, and profit trends.

• Generating Reports: Create structured, citation-based reports by synthesizing data from various sources to support investment decisions.

By mastering this workflow, you can streamline your stock research process and make informed decisions efficiently. Don't forget to try using Notebook LM for your next analysis!

In this lecture, I discuss on how we summarise to take a decision for a specific company. We focus on four primary factors: economic moat, financial stability, valuation, and risk assessment, using the example of the company CAMS. The analysis indicates that CAMS has strong growth potential, particularly in the mutual fund industry, but is currently trading at a premium, which might deter long-term investors.

I encouraged viewers to evaluate a company of their choice using the same framework and share their findings as part of an assignment. Overall, CAMS appears to be a reasonable trading bet, but caution is advised for long-term investments at the current price.

In this video, I explain how to leverage Google Notebook to analyze and compare multiple companies within a single industry, specifically focusing on the jewelry sector. You'll learn about:

• Industry Analysis and Benchmarking: How to gather and compare data across key companies in the jewelry sector, such as Kalyan Jewelers, Sky Gold, Thangamayil, and Titan.

• Impact of Gold Prices: Understanding how rising gold prices affect these companies and their hedging strategies to manage risks.

• Making Informed Investment Decisions: Using annual reports and quarterly results to identify the safest and most profitable investment opportunities among these companies.

By understanding these concepts, you can make well-informed decisions about investments and apply it to another industry. Don't forget to explore further questions and apply your analysis to refine your understanding!

Leverage a combination of AI tools and Google sheets to understand macro economic trends. A good understanding of macro economic situation based on changing geo-political situation is essential to make right decisions.

This lecture takesTariff structure as an example and showcases following:

Use Perplexity to build foundational knowledge:

It demonstrates on how you can start with a simple question to start probing with AI to get an overview of foundational knowledge for a particular subject. It helps you build core knowledge and also identify right sources for conclusive decisions. All research is exploratory. How do you start when you have very limited understanding.

Build conclusive structure for decision making using Notebooklm

It demonstrates on how to organise your sources on Notebooklm and work with Gemini to make informed decisions which are based on data and reliable sources.

Track Markets using GoogleSheets

Bring the real time market data from all international markets, currencies to see how the impacted countries are responding to changes and how it can impact you.

In this section, I dive into analyzing stocks using Google Finance on Google Sheets. Key highlights:

• Volatility of stocks compared to stable options like bonds.

• Tracking stocks: Google Finance helps monitor daily price changes, high/low values, and more using simple formulas.

• Examples covered:

  • Price: =GOOGLEFINANCE("NSE:ITC")

  • Change %: =GOOGLEFINANCE("NSE:ITC", "changepct")

  • 52-week high: =GOOGLEFINANCE("NSE:ITC", "high52")

The provided Google Sheet template can be customized for any stock.

In this session, I explore using Google Finance to retrieve historical stock data. Key points:

• Historical data can help identify trends for stock analysis (e.g., price, volume, high/low for specific periods).

• The Google Finance formula can fetch data for specific timeframes (e.g., last 30 days, 365 days).

  • Example formula:
    =GOOGLEFINANCE("NSE:ITC", "close", TODAY()-365, TODAY(), "DAILY")

• You can adjust the interval (daily or weekly) and customize the date range.

Understanding both historical data and quantitative analysis is crucial for making informed stock market decisions, especially for swing trading.

In this session, I build upon the previous lesson on retrieving historical stock data by learning how to fetch stock prices for a specific date or a number of days back using Google Finance.

Key points:

• The Google Finance function retrieves data for a stock at a specific date or a number of days in the past (e.g., 10 days ago).

• Formula example for fetching the stock price 10 days ago:
  =GOOGLEFINANCE("NSE:ITC", "close", TODAY()-10)

• You can combine the Google Finance function with the INDEX function to pull specific data (e.g., stock price for a specific day) from the results.

• It is also possible to specify a particular date instead of using "TODAY()-X" by manually entering the date (e.g., 05/07/2024).

• The session demonstrates how to compare stock prices across two dates (e.g., stock price today vs. one week ago) and calculate the percentage change.

Next session will extend this by learning how to compute averages for stock performance over a period (e.g., weekly, 10-day average).

In this video, I build on the previous lessons to extend the use of Google Finance by applying aggregate functions such as average, max, and min on stock data over specific time periods like 7, 15, or 30 days. These aggregate functions help in analyzing the stock's performance over time.

• Retrieving Stock Data: We start by retrieving stock data using the Google Finance function, where you specify the stock ticker and the period (e.g., last 7 days).

• Aggregate Functions: We demonstrate how to calculate average, max, and min prices for the selected stock data.

• Using ARRAYFORMULA: We use the ARRAYFORMULA function to apply the aggregate functions across multiple stocks at once.

• Custom Criteria: You can apply criteria to filter the stock data, for example, calculating the average only for stocks with a price greater than 100.

• Practical Example: We walk through how to calculate the 7-day average price for a stock and extend this to multiple stocks in the list.

By the end of this session, you'll be able to efficiently analyze stock data and apply aggregate functions across multiple stocks.

In this video, we bring together everything we've learned so far to build a dynamic stock market dashboard using Google Sheets and Google Finance. This dashboard provides key insights, such as price comparisons, trend analysis, and other metrics for stocks or indexes like Nifty 50.

Topics Covered:

• Review of Previous Learnings: Recap of formulas to fetch stock prices, historical data, and using Google Finance with aggregate functions like AVERAGE.

• Dashboard Overview: Learn how to compare 20-day and 50-day averages, analyze trends visually, and gain insights into stock movement patterns.

• Adding Sparklines: Create visual indicators for stock trends using the SPARKLINE function.

  • Syntax: Set up arrays for the price data, define the chart type (line), and customize colors (e.g., green for positive trends).

By the end of this video, you'll have a comprehensive stock dashboard that simplifies tracking and analyzing market trends. This foundation will be essential for fundamental analysis and applying trading strategies in upcoming sessions.

In this video, I explain the fundamental differences between investing and trading and how to pick the right strategy for your financial goals. You'll learn about:

• Investor vs. Trader: The key differences in their approaches, time horizons, and risk tolerance.

• Trading Strategies: Day trading, scalping, and swing trading, with insights into how these short-term strategies work.

• Investment Strategies: Value investing, growth investing, and dividend investing, along with examples like turnaround stories and mergers.

• Choosing the Right Strategy: How to assess your time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals to decide whether to trade or invest.

By understanding these concepts, you can build a personalized and effective approach to the stock market. Don't forget to reflect on your risk appetite and set clear goals before making any investment or trade!

In this video, we cover different assets available which serve different purposes and help you in different situations of life. We need to understand risk, volatility, liquidity and return probability for each of the asset classes. Once we have a reasonable understanding of the different assets, we can allocate monthly funds to ensure we are doing right things for long terms returns and sustainence.

In this video, I explain moving averages and their practical applications in trading. You'll learn about:

• Simple Moving Average (SMA): How the average of closing prices over a specific period reflects trends and helps identify upward or downward movements.

• Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Why EMA gives more weight to recent price trends, making it useful in volatile markets for capturing faster-moving changes.

• Moving Average Crossovers: How crossovers between short-term (e.g., 20-day) and long-term (e.g., 200-day) averages indicate bullish or bearish trends and why these are considered important signals by traders.

By understanding these moving averages, you can identify potential trend formations and enhance your trading decisions. Don't forget to explore charts with SMA and EMA indicators to practice spotting trends and crossovers!

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In this video, I explain how to identify moving average crossovers in stocks and build a foundational framework to analyze them. You'll learn about:

• Moving Average Crossover Analysis: Understanding short-term vs. long-term moving averages to identify bullish and bearish trends.

• Formulas for Moving Averages: Using Google Sheets formulas, including the GoogleFinance formula, to calculate 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

• Additional Indicators: Incorporating minimum and maximum price levels, sparkline trends, and volume analysis for better decision-making.

By understanding these concepts, you can build a strong foundation for tracking stocks and integrating technical indicators into your trading strategy. Don't forget to make a copy of the template and practice building your own tracker!

In this video, I explain how to calculate and use Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for stock analysis. You'll learn about:

• EMA Fundamentals: Understanding how EMAs focus more on recent price changes by using a weighted coefficient.

• Formula for EMA Calculation: Step-by-step process to compute the EMA, including calculating the coefficient and incorporating daily price deltas.

• 50-Day vs. 200-Day EMA: Comparing short-term and long-term EMAs to identify trends and analyze crossovers for better trade decisions.

By mastering these concepts, you'll gain deeper insights into market trends and learn how to implement EMAs in your trading strategy. Don't forget to practice and stay tuned for the next session, where we’ll explore additional indicators!

In this video, I explain the importance of volume as a trading indicator and its role in understanding market dynamics. You'll learn about:

• What is Volume?: Understanding how volume indicates the number of shares traded and its relationship with liquidity.

• Volume and Trend Strength: How increasing volume during an uptrend signals sustained strength, while drying volume can indicate weakening trends.

• Volume as Market Sentiment: The impact of news and market sentiment on trading volume and how it reflects buyer-seller behavior.

• Benjamin Graham's Quote on Volume: The concept that volume acts as a "ballot box," showing the strength of a trend through increased trading activity.

By grasping the role of volume, you'll be able to identify strong trends and make informed decisions in your trading strategy. Don't forget to explore charting tools and stay tuned for the next session where we’ll integrate volume with other indicators to build a comprehensive trading framework!

In this video, I explain how to combine moving averages and volume analysis to identify stocks in a positive trend. You'll learn about:

• Price and Trend Analysis: How to evaluate if the price is in a positive trend, supported by increasing volume.

• 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages: Understanding how to assess if short-term trends (50-day average) are outperforming long-term trends (200-day average).

• Volume Trend Analysis: How to use volume as an indicator of stock strength and whether it’s sustaining the current trend.

• Evaluating Buy Signals: How to combine all these metrics (price, moving averages, and volume) to identify strong buy signals and make informed trading decisions.

By integrating moving averages and volume, you can develop a comprehensive framework to spot stocks in momentum. Don’t forget to make a copy of the tracker and experiment with different parameters to optimize your stock evaluation process!

In this video, I explain how to convert stock indicators into a strategic framework for ongoing use. You'll learn about:

• Higher Lows: Understanding the concept of higher lows in stock price movements and how they indicate increasing buyer interest and a bullish trend.

• Combining Indicators: How to integrate higher lows with the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) to confirm a positive trend.

• Volume Confirmation: The importance of volume in supporting the trend, ensuring that higher lows are backed by sustained buyer interest.

• Backtesting Strategy: How to identify positive reversals from higher lows and use backtesting to refine your strategy for different market conditions.

By combining these signals, you can identify stocks with strong buyer interest and make more informed decisions. Don’t forget to practice this strategy on real stock charts to see how it works in action. In the next session, we’ll implement this strategy using a Google Sheet!

In this video, I explain how to implement the strategy of identifying positive reversals in stock price action using Google Sheets. You'll learn about:

• Identifying Higher Lows: I explain how to spot stocks that are forming higher lows, a crucial price action indicator for potential recommendations.

• Sustained Price Momentum: The method for determining if a stock is in a positive trend based on the 50-day EMA being higher than the 200-day EMA and the current price.

• Volume Consistency: How to assess if the stock is maintaining positive momentum with volumes staying above average.

By understanding these concepts, you can analyze stock price movements and volumes effectively. Don’t forget to practice using the Google Sheets template and adjust parameters based on the stocks you are tracking.

In this video, I explain how to extend the higher lows framework and leverage it for weekly stock analysis using Google Sheets. You'll learn about:

• Weekly Data Structure: I guide you through setting up the worksheet, including pulling in the weekly low, high, and volume data for a stock, and the key changes from the previous daily analysis.

• Price Action and Trend: I explain how identifying a continuous pattern of higher lows and higher highs in weekly data can indicate a positive trend, and how this relates to buyers and sellers in the market.

• Volume and EMA Analysis: Learn how to assess whether the volume on positive days is higher than on negative days, and how the relationship between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs helps confirm the strength of a trend.

By understanding these concepts, you can effectively analyze weekly stock data to identify potential stocks with upward movement. Don’t forget to adjust the parameters in your Google Sheets template and track different stock codes for ongoing analysis.

In this video, I explain how to extend the concept of volume and price action by incorporating exponential moving averages (EMA) for more precise trend identification. You'll learn about:

• The Limitation of Averages: Understand how traditional moving averages treat all price data equally and why recent price action should carry more weight.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): Learn how EMAs assign more weight to recent data, making trend identification more responsive and accurate.

• Applying EMA in Google Sheets: Discover how to implement EMA calculations in your sheet and use them to assess stock trends based on volume and price data.

By understanding these concepts, you can more effectively identify stocks with positive momentum and make informed investment decisions. Don’t forget to test the recommendations by running the attached app scripts and adjust the parameters for your own stock list.