A Deep Dive into Forecasting- Excel & R.
What you'll learn
- Time Series Decomposition.
- Univariate analysis for time series
- Bivariate analysis and auto-correlation
- Smoothing the time series
- seasonally adjusting the time series
- Generating and Calibrating Forecasting in Excel
- Learning R and using it as everyday tool for forecasting.
- Using the Fable Package for advanced forecasting methods and aggregations
- Time Series Forecasting
- Different Applications of forecasting
- Business Forecasting
update : machine learning forecasting is added as the last chapter (Aug 2023)
Forecasting has been around for 1000s of years. it stems from our need to plan so we can have some direction for the future. We can consider forecasting as the stepping stone for planning. and that's why it is as important as ever to have good forecasters in institutions, supply chains, companies, and businesses.
With the ever-growing concerns of sustainability and Carbon-footprint. Would you believe it? a good forecast actually contributes to saving resources through the value chain and actually saving the planet. one forecaster at a time. needless to mention, forecasting is integral in marketing, operations, finance, and planning for supply chains. Pretty much everything
This course is aimed to orient you to the latest statistical forecasting techniques and trends. but first, we need to understand how forecasting works and the reasoning behind statistical methods, and when each method is suitable to be used. that's why we start first with excel and we scale with R. "Don't worry if you don't know R, Crash fundamental sections are included!.
the course is for all levels because we start from Zero to Hero in Forecasting.
in this course we will learn and apply :
1- Time Series Decomposition in Excel and R.
2- Univariate analysis for time series in Excel and R.
3- Bivariate analysis and auto-correlation in Excel and R.
4- Smoothing the time series and getting the Trend with Double and centered moving average.
5- seasonally adjusting the time series.
6- Simple and complex forecasts in Excel.
7- Use transformations to reduce the variance while forecasting.
8-Generating and Calibrating Forecasting in Excel.
9- Learning R and using it as an everyday tool for forecasting.
10- Using the Fable Package for advanced forecasting methods and aggregations.
11- Using Forecast package for grid search on ARIMA.
12- Applying a workflow of different models in two lines of code.
13- Calibirating forecasting methods.
14- Applying Hierarchical time series with Bottom-up, middle out, and Top-down Approaches.
16- Use the new R-Fable reconciliation method for aggregation.
15- Using Fable to generate forecasts for 10000 time-series and much more !!
*NOTE: Many of the concepts and analysis I explain first in excel as I find excel the best way to first explain a concept and then we scale up, improve and generalize with R. By the end of this course, you will have an exciting set of skills and a toolbox you can always rely on when tackling forecasting challenges.
Feedback from Clients and Training:
"In Q4 2018, I was fortunate to find an opportunity to learn R in Dubai, after hearing about it from indirect references in UK.
I attended a Supply Chain Forecasting & Demand Planning Masterclass conducted by Haitham Omar and the possibilities seemed endless. So, we requested Haitham to conduct a 5-day workshop in our office to train 8 staff members, which opened us up as a team to deeper data analysis. Today, we have gone a step further and retained Haitham, as a consultant, to take our data analysis to the next level and to help us implement inventory guidelines for our business. The above progression of our actions is a clear indication of the capabilities of Haitham as a specialist in R and in data analytics, demand planning, and inventory management."
Commercial lead-in Adventure AHQ- Sharaf Group
“ Haytham mentored me in my Role of Head of Supply Chain efficiency. He is extremely knowledgebase about the supply concepts, latest trends, and benchmarks in the supply chain world. Haytham’s analytics-driven approach was very helpful for me to recommend and implement significant changes to our supply chain at Aster group”
Head of Supply Chain Efficiency
“I participated to the training session called "Supply Chain Forecasting & Management" on December 22nd 2018. This training helped me a lot in my daily work since I am working in Purchase Dpt. Haytham has the pedagogy to explain us very difficult calculations and formula in a simple way. I highly recommend this training.”
Purchasing Manager at Mineral Circles Bearings
Who this course is for:
- Retail merchandise
- Supply chain
- Operation managers
"Never follow a book by its cover, In a world that changes every second, we must be resilient and proactive. " Consultant / Developer /Trainer
Consultant in Supply Chain Management & Business Intelligence
Founder - Rescale Analytics – Dubai
• PhD student at the University of Bordeaux.
• Supply chain and data science consultant for several national and multinational clients in the UAE and France.
• Data Scientist, Master of Science in Global Supply Chain Management from Bordeaux Ecole de Management, Bordeaux, France
He is currently conducting workshops and seminars in Supply chain and data science as well as consultancy projects for Sephora, Sharaf group and aster pharmacy.
• Haytham conducted more than 70 workshops in UAE in the last three years in supply chain and data science.
Qarar for financial analytics
PWC training Academy
Higher College of Technology
Partners: Edusphere dubai- Limar Tech Saudi arabia – sl-tech Abu Dhabi
Projects :AHQ-SHARAF GROUP:
developing an algorithm for the replenishment of stocks to Sharaf group -adventure HQ . the algorithm is being used since November 2019 with notable results.
Developing and deploying an algorithm for revenue maximization based on elasticity techniques for adventure zones service provided by AHQ.
Projects: Sephora – France
Haytham is working with Kedge business school as part of the team CSIT for partnership
The collaboration of Omni-channel optimization with Sephora France. As a part of his Ph.D. project.
Development: Haytham developed the Inventorize package in R mainly used for supply chain analytics with more than 50000 Downloads so far.