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Learn the basic concepts and tools to help you make better decisions under uncertainty, take calculated risks, and reduce the stress and regrets that often come with decision making.
Use probabilistic thinking to increase your chance of success and manage risks.
Improve your real life decision making and reduce stress and regrets
Every day, we have to make decisions but we are often unsure of what to do because of the risks and uncertainties involved. Many of us often regret decisions both big and small, but there are actually many ways we can improve our decision-making and risk management, and reduce the stress and regrets about decisions.
Content and Overview
In this course, our goal is to better understand randomness and uncertainty and learn tools to help us make more educated risks. We'll talk about the different biases we all experience in our intuitive thinking, and then learn how to re-train our brains to approach everyday problems differently.
Using probability theory and a bit of math, we'll discuss how to make decisions rationally and efficiently. But don't worry—no math background other than being able to add, subtract, divide, and multiply is required! We'll learn how to make better financial decisions, take smarter risks, and improve nearly every aspect of our lives. Each video is short and concise but filled with interesting and helpful material. Each one is animated, to ensure we grasp the concepts completely, and they all contain engaging, relatable real-life examples. Using these tools, anyone can learn to improve their decision-making, which leads to ultimately minimizing the number of regrets they have. If you'd like to live a more worry-free life with fewer regrets, this course is for you.
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|Section 1: Preliminaries|
Randomness and Thinking Flaws
|Section 2: Probabilistic Thinking|
Probability, Relative Frequency, and Availability Heuristic
How to Interpret Statics; Correlation and Causation
Odds vs Probability
Degree of Belief: Starting a Successful Business; Murder Trials
|Section 3: Probabilities, Conditioning, and Bayesian Thinking|
Probability Laws: Raining, Airplanes, and Elections
Conditioning and Independence
Bayes' Rule: False Positive Paradox and Cancer Screening
Courts and Bayes’ Rule
|Section 4: Rare Events|
Confirmation Bias and Lucky Shirts
Psychics, Coincidences, and Bernoulli Trials
Birthdays and Related Scenarios in Life
Psychics' Strategies and Probability Amplification
|Section 5: Randomness and Skills|
Narrative Fallacy and Hindsight Bias
Introduction to Randomness in Finance
How Should We Invest in the Stock Market?
|Section 6: Random Variables and Expectation|
Random Variables, Expectation, and the Law of Large Numbers
Regression Toward the Mean
|Section 7: Decision Types|
Uncertainty, Confidence, and Rational Decisions
Simplification and Decision Capacity
Different Types of Decisions and Events
Potential Harm and Decision Structures
|Section 8: Low-Harm Decisions|
Risk Aversion and the Expected values
Should I buy Extra Warranty?
Stocks or Real Estate?
|Section 9: Utilities, Satisficing, and Pitfalls|
Using Expected Utility
How to Quantify and Prioritize?
The Sunk Cost Fallacy
Satisficing and Simplicity
Comparison Decisions, Halo Effects, and Quantifying
|Section 10: High-Impact Decisions and Events|
Potential Harm and Why the Rich Get Richer
High Impact Rare Events
Efficiency and Its Flaws
Unknown and Hidden Risks
|Section 11: Positive High-Impact Events|
Increasing Our Chances of Success
Exposing Ourselves to Positive High-Impact Events
Hossein Pishro-Nik (MBA, PhD) is a faculty member in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He has a Ph.D. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology. His research interests include Information Theory, Coding Theory, and analysis of wireless networks. He is the author of a textbook entitled “Introduction to Probability, Statistics, and Random Processes".