Applying Chance & Risk to Life & Business

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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  • Lectures 40
  • Length 3 hours
  • Skill Level All Levels
  • Languages English
  • Includes Lifetime access
    30 day money back guarantee!
    Available on iOS and Android
    Certificate of Completion
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About This Course

Published 9/2015 English

Course Description

Learn the basic concepts and tools to help you make better decisions under uncertainty, take calculated risks, and reduce the stress and regrets that often come with decision making.

Use probabilistic thinking to increase your chance of success and manage risks.

  • The laws of probability that govern our life
  • Biases and fallacies that often distort our decision making
  • Making decisions under uncertainty
  • Taking calculated risks in life and business
  • Reducing stress in decision making
  • Reducing regrets about past decisions

Improve your real life decision making and reduce stress and regrets

Every day, we have to make decisions but we are often unsure of what to do because of the risks and uncertainties involved. Many of us often regret decisions both big and small, but there are actually many ways we can improve our decision-making and risk management, and reduce the stress and regrets about decisions.

Content and Overview

In this course, our goal is to better understand randomness and uncertainty and learn tools to help us make more educated risks. We'll talk about the different biases we all experience in our intuitive thinking, and then learn how to re-train our brains to approach everyday problems differently.

Using probability theory and a bit of math, we'll discuss how to make decisions rationally and efficiently. But don't worry—no math background other than being able to add, subtract, divide, and multiply is required! We'll learn how to make better financial decisions, take smarter risks, and improve nearly every aspect of our lives. Each video is short and concise but filled with interesting and helpful material. Each one is animated, to ensure we grasp the concepts completely, and they all contain engaging, relatable real-life examples. Using these tools, anyone can learn to improve their decision-making, which leads to ultimately minimizing the number of regrets they have. If you'd like to live a more worry-free life with fewer regrets, this course is for you.

What are the requirements?

  • No prior knowledge other than basic arithmetic is required

What am I going to get from this course?

  • Know biases and fallacies that often distort our decision making
  • Improve decision making under uncertainty
  • Take more educated risks in life and business
  • Reduce stress and regrets about decisions

Who is the target audience?

  • Anyone who would like to improve their decision making and risk management

What you get with this course?

Not for you? No problem.
30 day money back guarantee.

Forever yours.
Lifetime access.

Learn on the go.
Desktop, iOS and Android.

Get rewarded.
Certificate of completion.


Section 1: Preliminaries
Thinking Modes
Randomness and Thinking Flaws
Section 2: Probabilistic Thinking
Probability, Relative Frequency, and Availability Heuristic
How to Interpret Statics; Correlation and Causation
Finding Probabilities
Odds vs Probability
Degree of Belief: Starting a Successful Business; Murder Trials
Section 3: Probabilities, Conditioning, and Bayesian Thinking
Probability Laws: Raining, Airplanes, and Elections
Conditioning and Independence
Disease Probabilities
Bayes' Rule: False Positive Paradox and Cancer Screening
Courts and Bayes’ Rule
Section 4: Rare Events
Confirmation Bias and Lucky Shirts
Psychics, Coincidences, and Bernoulli Trials
Birthdays and Related Scenarios in Life
Psychics' Strategies and Probability Amplification
Section 5: Randomness and Skills
Narrative Fallacy and Hindsight Bias
Introduction to Randomness in Finance
How Should We Invest in the Stock Market?
Section 6: Random Variables and Expectation
Random Variables, Expectation, and the Law of Large Numbers
Regression Toward the Mean
Section 7: Decision Types
Uncertainty, Confidence, and Rational Decisions
Simplification and Decision Capacity
Different Types of Decisions and Events
Potential Harm and Decision Structures
Section 8: Low-Harm Decisions
Risk Aversion and the Expected values
Should I buy Extra Warranty?
Stocks or Real Estate?
Section 9: Utilities, Satisficing, and Pitfalls
Using Expected Utility
How to Quantify and Prioritize?
The Sunk Cost Fallacy
Satisficing and Simplicity
Comparison Decisions, Halo Effects, and Quantifying
Section 10: High-Impact Decisions and Events
Potential Harm and Why the Rich Get Richer
High Impact Rare Events
Efficiency and Its Flaws
Unknown and Hidden Risks
Section 11: Positive High-Impact Events
Increasing Our Chances of Success
Exposing Ourselves to Positive High-Impact Events

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Instructor Biography

Hossein Pishro-Nik, Associate Professor at UMass Amherst

Hossein Pishro-Nik (MBA, PhD) is a faculty member in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He has a Ph.D. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology. His research interests include Information Theory, Coding Theory, and analysis of wireless networks. He is the author of a textbook entitled “Introduction to Probability, Statistics, and Random Processes".

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