Applying Chance & Risk to Life & Business
4.0 (47 ratings)
Instead of using a simple lifetime average, Udemy calculates a course's star rating by considering a number of different factors such as the number of ratings, the age of ratings, and the likelihood of fraudulent ratings.
4,866 students enrolled
Wishlisted Wishlist

Please confirm that you want to add Applying Chance & Risk to Life & Business to your Wishlist.

Add to Wishlist

Applying Chance & Risk to Life & Business

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
4.0 (47 ratings)
Instead of using a simple lifetime average, Udemy calculates a course's star rating by considering a number of different factors such as the number of ratings, the age of ratings, and the likelihood of fraudulent ratings.
4,866 students enrolled
Last updated 11/2015
English
Price: Free
Includes:
  • 3 hours on-demand video
  • 1 Supplemental Resource
  • Full lifetime access
  • Access on mobile and TV
  • Certificate of Completion
What Will I Learn?
  • Know biases and fallacies that often distort our decision making
  • Improve decision making under uncertainty
  • Take more educated risks in life and business
  • Reduce stress and regrets about decisions
View Curriculum
Requirements
  • No prior knowledge other than basic arithmetic is required
Description

Learn the basic concepts and tools to help you make better decisions under uncertainty, take calculated risks, and reduce the stress and regrets that often come with decision making.

Use probabilistic thinking to increase your chance of success and manage risks.

  • The laws of probability that govern our life
  • Biases and fallacies that often distort our decision making
  • Making decisions under uncertainty
  • Taking calculated risks in life and business
  • Reducing stress in decision making
  • Reducing regrets about past decisions

Improve your real life decision making and reduce stress and regrets

Every day, we have to make decisions but we are often unsure of what to do because of the risks and uncertainties involved. Many of us often regret decisions both big and small, but there are actually many ways we can improve our decision-making and risk management, and reduce the stress and regrets about decisions.

Content and Overview

In this course, our goal is to better understand randomness and uncertainty and learn tools to help us make more educated risks. We'll talk about the different biases we all experience in our intuitive thinking, and then learn how to re-train our brains to approach everyday problems differently.

Using probability theory and a bit of math, we'll discuss how to make decisions rationally and efficiently. But don't worry—no math background other than being able to add, subtract, divide, and multiply is required! We'll learn how to make better financial decisions, take smarter risks, and improve nearly every aspect of our lives. Each video is short and concise but filled with interesting and helpful material. Each one is animated, to ensure we grasp the concepts completely, and they all contain engaging, relatable real-life examples. Using these tools, anyone can learn to improve their decision-making, which leads to ultimately minimizing the number of regrets they have. If you'd like to live a more worry-free life with fewer regrets, this course is for you.

Who is the target audience?
  • Anyone who would like to improve their decision making and risk management
Students Who Viewed This Course Also Viewed
Curriculum For This Course
40 Lectures
03:03:47
+
Preliminaries
3 Lectures 16:35
Introduction
05:04

Thinking Modes
04:25

Randomness and Thinking Flaws
07:06
+
Probabilistic Thinking
5 Lectures 25:21
Probability, Relative Frequency, and Availability Heuristic
06:28

How to Interpret Statics; Correlation and Causation
05:11

Finding Probabilities
06:58

Odds vs Probability
02:15

Degree of Belief: Starting a Successful Business; Murder Trials
04:29
+
Probabilities, Conditioning, and Bayesian Thinking
5 Lectures 26:10
Probability Laws: Raining, Airplanes, and Elections
03:56

Conditioning and Independence
05:43

Disease Probabilities
03:58

Bayes' Rule: False Positive Paradox and Cancer Screening
06:05

Courts and Bayes’ Rule
06:28
+
Rare Events
4 Lectures 16:30
Confirmation Bias and Lucky Shirts
02:28

Psychics, Coincidences, and Bernoulli Trials
04:58

Birthdays and Related Scenarios in Life
04:52

Psychics' Strategies and Probability Amplification
04:12
+
Randomness and Skills
3 Lectures 14:52
Narrative Fallacy and Hindsight Bias
05:11

Introduction to Randomness in Finance
03:22

How Should We Invest in the Stock Market?
06:19
+
Random Variables and Expectation
2 Lectures 10:25
Random Variables, Expectation, and the Law of Large Numbers
06:09

Regression Toward the Mean
04:16
+
Decision Types
4 Lectures 17:22
Uncertainty, Confidence, and Rational Decisions
02:16

Simplification and Decision Capacity
06:22

Different Types of Decisions and Events
06:04

Potential Harm and Decision Structures
02:40
+
Low-Harm Decisions
3 Lectures 11:52
Risk Aversion and the Expected values
02:55

Should I buy Extra Warranty?
04:25

Stocks or Real Estate?
04:32
+
Utilities, Satisficing, and Pitfalls
5 Lectures 21:02
Using Expected Utility
04:19

How to Quantify and Prioritize?
03:57

The Sunk Cost Fallacy
04:17

Satisficing and Simplicity
03:49

Comparison Decisions, Halo Effects, and Quantifying
04:40
+
High-Impact Decisions and Events
4 Lectures 16:48
Potential Harm and Why the Rich Get Richer
05:17

High Impact Rare Events
02:55

Efficiency and Its Flaws
05:44

Unknown and Hidden Risks
02:52
1 More Section
About the Instructor
Hossein Pishro-Nik
4.0 Average rating
47 Reviews
4,866 Students
1 Course
Associate Professor at UMass Amherst

Hossein Pishro-Nik (MBA, PhD) is a faculty member in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He has a Ph.D. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology. His research interests include Information Theory, Coding Theory, and analysis of wireless networks. He is the author of a textbook entitled “Introduction to Probability, Statistics, and Random Processes".