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The global economy is in crisis and teetering on the edge of collapsing into a new Great Depression. If it does, the economic and geopolitical consequences will be catastrophic. In this global economic crisis course, Richard Duncan provides a comprehensive explanation of how this calamity came about. Topics include the abandonment of economic orthodoxy, the end of sound money and the consequences of unbalanced trade. An easy to understand analytical framework that explains all aspects of the crisis is introduced; and the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis is made clear. With this knowledge, the student will be well positioned to anticipate how the global economic crisis will evolve during the months and years ahead.
Richard is the author of three books on the global economic crisis and has more than 25 years of experience working in financial markets.
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|Section 1: Abandoned Principles|
|This introduction describes what this course will teach. It also highlights how close we are to once again collapsing into a new Great Depression.|
|After the Great Depression the United States took steps to restore economic stability, guided by the key principles of economic orthodoxy. Here we see how this was achieved.|
|During the 1960s, the government spent too much money on war and on social welfare programs. As a result, global economic stability began to unravel.|
In 1968, the Fed stopped backing dollars with gold. Three years later the Bretton Woods international monetary system collapsed. This lecture explains why.
|Section 2: Global Imbalances|
|After the Bretton Woods System broke down, massive US trade deficits began to flood the world with excessive dollar liquidity. Here we see how unbalanced trade created the global imbalances that have brought the world to the brink of disaster.|
|Foreign Exchange Reserves - now approaching US$11 trillion - are one of the most important and least understood aspects of the global economy. Here their role is explained.|
|This lecture describes how the dollars sent abroad as a result of the US trade deficit boomeranged back into the United States and created an economic bubble there.|
|The Dollar Standard lacks an automatic adjustment mechanism to prevent large and persistent trade imbalances between nations. That is its tragic flaw.|
|Section 3: The Role Of Credit|
|Total credit in the US expanded fifty-fold during the four and a half decades leading up to the global economic crisis. This lecture discusses the developments that made that $50 trillion expansion of credit possible.|
|A $50 trillion expansion of credit transformed the American economy - both is size and composition. The details are outlined here.|
|This lectures discusses one of the worst economic policy mistakes in the history of the United States: Financial Sector Deregulation.|
|The Quantity Theory of Credit is an easy to understand analytical framework that is very useful in explaining all aspects of this crisis. It is introduced here.|
|Section 4: The Policy Response|
|Policymakers fear that if credit now begins to contract, the economy will breakdown into Depression. Therefore the policy response is designed to ensure that credit continues to expand so as to perpetuate the Boom. This is very important to understand because government policy is now the most important driver of asset prices.|
Credit and money creation are highly inflationary. Globalization is deflationary. The forces behind both inflation and deflation are discussed here. For the moment, they are completely offsetting one another, creating a unique moment in history.
Concluding Remarks and Contact Details
This lecture is the introduction to my second Udemy course, How The Economy Really Works.
Capitalism died in World War I. The Government manages the economy now. In order to understand where the economy is headed and what that will mean for the direction of stocks, bonds, property and commodities, it’s necessary to understand how the government manages it.
How The Economy Really Works explains how our economic system works now.
Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003) explained why a worldwide economic calamity was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism (2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the crisis. It also outlined the policies necessary to permanently resolve it. His latest book, published in 2012, focuses specifically on the role that credit creation has played in this disaster. It's entitled The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy.
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. He is now chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management in Singapore.
Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio. He has published articles in The Financial Times, The Far East Economic Review, FinanceAsia and CFO Asia. He is also a well-known speaker whose audiences have included The World Economic Forum's East Asia Economic Summit in Singapore, EuroFinance Conferences in Miami and Copenhagen, The Chief Financial Officers' Roundtable in Shanghai, and the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul.
Richard studied literature an economics at Vanderbilt University (1983) and international finance at Babson College (1986); and, between the two, spent a year traveling around the world as a backpacker.