Advanced Options Concepts - Probability, Greeks, Simulation
4.3 (69 ratings)
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Advanced Options Concepts - Probability, Greeks, Simulation

Deep dive into Probability, Greek subtleties, and Options simulation. Learn how they affect Option prices and strategies
4.3 (69 ratings)
Instead of using a simple lifetime average, Udemy calculates a course's star rating by considering a number of different factors such as the number of ratings, the age of ratings, and the likelihood of fraudulent ratings.
878 students enrolled
Created by Hari Swaminathan
Last updated 2/2013
English
Current price: $10 Original price: $60 Discount: 83% off
1 day left at this price!
30-Day Money-Back Guarantee
Includes:
  • 2 hours on-demand video
  • Full lifetime access
  • Access on mobile and TV
  • Certificate of Completion
What Will I Learn?
  • Master the concept of probability as it applies to Options markets
  • Understand the various subtleties of all four Option Greeks
  • Put an "edge" into your trades in your favor with these advanced analysis techniques
  • Know how your Options position will perform under all conditions BEFORE YOU PUT YOUR TRADE ON.
View Curriculum
Requirements
  • Basic Options knowledge of Calls and Puts
  • Basic knowledge of Option Greeks
Description
This course covers three advanced Options concepts - Probability, Advanced Options Greeks analysis and Options Simulation

SECTION I - DEEP DIVE INTO PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

While Probability has been mentioned a few times in previous courses, we take a deep dive in this course. Having a finely tuned probabilistic mindset coupled with good analysis is an absolute must in financial markets. This course shows a few different ways of looking at Probability and how investors can create strategies to put Probability on their side.

 

SECTION II - DEEP DIVE INTO THE OPTION GREEKS

 

This course also takes a deep dive into the four Greeks - Delta, Gamma, Theta and Vega. We introduced these concepts in the previous module, but it is time to take their understanding to a new level. The Greeks are the path to putting your strategies on "Auto-pilot". We explain the subtleties of all the Greeks - very cool stuff, put your Math hat on... 

 

What you will master

 

  • What is the importance of statistical price modeling in the stock markets
  • Why is Standard Deviation an important metric
  • What are the pluses and minuses of statistical modeling
  • How can we choose strategies using Probability as a signpost
  • Take your understanding of all the four Greeks to a new level
  • Master the subtleties of each of the Greeks
  • Look at option modeling from a mathematical standpoint

 

SECTION III - OPTIONS ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION

 A good trade entry based upon Volume / Chart / Technical analysis sets you up for success from the get-go. But before you put a trade on, you need to perform Options analysis and simulation to understand how your position will behave under a diverse set of market conditions. Once you perform this Options analysis, you can immediately spot your weak points and you're prepared for them. Analysis and Simulation are as important as finding a good trade entry. In this course, we provide a complete roadmap to simulate every possible market condition BEFORE you put the trade on. This kind of analysis may take 30 minutes, but its well worth the time spent.

 

What you will master

 

  • How will your position behave for a + / - 5% move in your stock
  • Options analysis before you put your trade on
  • Options simulation to know where your profit zone is
  • What is the impact of Time decay on your position
  • What will Implied Volatility changes do to your position
  • Simulating the effects of two variables on your position
  • Simulating all three variables
  • Stress testing your trade

 

 

Who is the target audience?
  • People familiar with Options basics like Buying Call Options and Put Options
  • Anyone with basic knowledge of Options spreads
  • Anyone intending to optimize their credit spreads and other Options strategies
Students Who Viewed This Course Also Viewed
Curriculum For This Course
Expand All 10 Lectures Collapse All 10 Lectures 01:53:51
+
Deep Dive into Probability
3 Lectures 32:46
This is an introduction to the course. In this course, we're taking a deep dive into 3 important concepts in Options trading - Probability, Advanced Greek analysis and Options simulation
Preview 04:34

Two new columns are introduced on the Thinkorswim platform - the Probability of going ITM and the probability of Touching. Both these columns provide insightful information to an Options trader
Preview 10:10

A continuation of probability analysis, Standard deviation, the ideal strike prices to set up short strike Options, the analysis of the buffer zone created by the premium collected and a study of probability curves.
Standard deviation, Buffer zones and Probability Curves
18:02

Probability Quiz
4 questions
+
Deep Dive in the Option Greeks - Subtleties of Delta, Gamma, Vega and Theta
2 Lectures 26:07
We studies the 4 Greeks in an earlier course. In this section, we take a deep dive into each of the Greeks. This lecture covers Delta, Gamma and Vega
Analyzing the subtleties of Delta, Gamma and Vega for different expiry series
19:11

This lecture covers Theta - time decay
Analyzing Theta subtleties
06:56

Option Greeks Quiz
5 questions
+
Options Simulation - The key to understanding your position
5 Lectures 54:58
The importance of Options simulation. Options simulation is the third leg of the Options trading stool - a critical requirement for an Options trader
Options Simulation introduction - Why do we need simulation
06:24

Simulating an Options position for the three variables - Price, Time and Volatility on an individual basis.
Options simulation - Simulating Price, Volatility and Time decay individually
18:43

Simulating an Options position for the 3 variables when all 3 variables are changing. This is a realistic simulation of actual market conditions
Options simulation - Simulating Price, Volatility and Time decay collectively
15:44

Introduction of Theoretical Price on Thinkorswim. This can be a useful column in many cases.
Options simulation - Calculating Theoretical Price
08:13

The concluding lecture for this course. 
CONCLUSION
05:54
About the Instructor
Hari Swaminathan
4.5 Average rating
2,828 Reviews
26,478 Students
23 Courses
Options Mentor, Financial markets educator, Trader, Investor

Knowledge. Strategy. Execution.

Hari Swaminathan is the founder of OptionTiger, a cutting-edge Options Mentoring company, and a full-circle educator in all areas of Financial Markets, Hari has developed several proprietary Intellectual Property "methods and approaches" around enhancing base case Options strategies (which favor the Market Makers) and turns that deficit into a massive EDGE on the trader's side.. Like building a powerful Strategy "for all Option Strategies". 

Hari is self-taught in Options and actively trading these instruments for almost 10 years, mostly through trial and error. Trial and error in general, is an excellent method of learning, but applied in this context, trial and error CAN BE EXPENSIVE. My courseware focuses on this aspect mostly, so you can avoid losing money in the 1 to 2 years when you're learning. Yes, it does take that long, if not more. If the markets were indeed simple, you'd have everyone involved in it. Patience, Diligence, and Determination are what you need during this time.

Hari has a Bachelors degree in Engineering from India, and MBA's from Columbia University in NYC and London Business School in London UK. 

More than ever, its become important for normal people to take charge of their financial situation, and truly understand how financial markets, and the various asset classes, trading nuances really work. Investing in the financial markets is no longer a HANDS-OFF ACTIVITY. There's no point blaming financial advisors after the fact. Now, it's become crucial for everyone to do "their OWN homework", so you can decide for yourself whether something is good or risky. This is of course easier said than done, and that's exactly where we come in.

My mission is to educate everyday people on the deep, strategic underpinnings of the stock markets, and exploit that knowledge with the use of OPTIONS.  THERE IS NOTHING RANDOM about the markets. There are surprises all the time, but there's always a method behind every madness. And my goal is to get you to this point of understanding and awareness. That's when it starts to fit in. 

Knowledge, Education, Crafting Breakthrough strategy, Technical analysis, Following Smart Money, Risk management, Disciplined Money management, and near flawless Execution approaches are just a few of the crucial points emphasized in all the Courses. Video-based education courseware, Practical workshops, several elite proprietary Advanced systems, a 4-week Live Mentoring program are just a few things we offer. The goal is to provide a "full circle" education in the Markets, which is necessary before it starts "fitting in". 

Let's break down the Options game in a realistic manner. 

The Pluses

1. Options were invented out of thin air. And the people who invented them won Nobel Prizes for their invention (Fisher and Black). It is purely a "Mathematical" concept, with no real connections to the external world except for one, that's defined implicitly in its design.. Its fascinating, mathematical, strategic, risky, but can also provide the basis for life-long income streams. There's focus on Analysis, Data science, Statistical Modeling and Probability theory.

2. This gives rise to very complex but interesting  analytical scenarios. It also gives us the ability to model Options with a set of tools like a car dashboard. In many cases, you don't need to see what's going in the Markets, or the Stocks themselves. This data is embedded in the mathematical formulas that underpin Options structure itself, and you can operate on the basis of your Dashboard.

3. Because everything in Options is defined in mathematical terms, its also important to realize that OPTIONS will always be the same. The math behind Options will always be the same. Forever. Unless they discover serious flaws in the formulas and models used by these Nobel winners. And of course, sadly, if it were the case, the Nobel prizes would have to be retracted and we go back to the drawing board again. But today, several well developed markets around the world exist purely based on their Mathematical Modeling of RISK.

4. Options and Chess have LARGE overlaps. You may agree that Chess is a game of "skill". It's a game of Strategy and depends upon how well you can plan (ahead) to attack, defend or take a neutral position. We also believe that Chess is strategy-focused and depends upon certain mathematical principles. Why or How do we know this - The reason we know its a game of skill is : Try to play 100 chess games with Kasparov or Anand. Normal people are almost guaranteed a loss in all 100 games. So it has to be a game of skill. And why do we know its underlying features are mathematics based. The fact that a computer like Deep Blue beat the GrandMaster Garry Kasparov in 1997, proved to be both shocking, and revealing at the same time. While human beings abilities have not increased in exponential terms during the last 20 years, and we may be able to plan 3 or 4 or 5 moves ahead, the computer of today can calculate a 1000 moves ahead, go down every possible path, and record the outcomes like photographic memory.  This is a capability that humans may never achieve, proving that Math plays a key role. So today, every professional Chess player refuses to play the machine, because it's almost guaranteed that the Masters WILL LOSE EVERY GAME

5. Lastly, You MUST believe this completely -  Options, just like Chess, are a "skill set", and requires acquiring a deep set of analytical skills much more so than most skill sets in the world, and THEY can only be MASTERED over a period of time. Once you understand Options better, you'll realize how true this is. We cannot turn into a Kasparov in a matter of weeks or even a few months. It does NOT work like that. But once you go through this process that can go for 1 to 2 years or more (depending upon your commitment to this process), there is a very powerful light at the end of this tunnel. You build a skill set for life.  Age, Geographical location, Lifestyles, or Weather are no longer a barrier to creating consistent income streams, regardless of who you are, where you are, or how old you are. 

This is very POWERFUL stuff. 

Now let's look at the negatives. This is what most people will NOT tell you. Anyone that tells you Options are SIMPLE, and you can make extra ordinary income easily, is JUST NOT TRUE. I will tell you Options can be brutal if you simply apply speculative methodologies. Then you should just STICK TO STOCKS, which are nothing BUT speculation, with a minute role in STRATEGY Give yourself time to master this CRAFT. And once you can develop a SYSTEMATIC approach to every situation (which is the Real Game), you'll be well on your way to consistent performance.


MINUSES


Options are easily the most fascinating financial instrument with several upside benefits, but also an equally powerful set of negatives. 

1. Options have a steep learning curve. Don't expect to become Kasparov in a couple of months. Or even a year or two. And why is this important to realize: Because we are playing a Kasparov or Anand every time we enter the Options market. Market Makers who are 99% of the time, the counter party to all Options trades, are Options professionals, with 10 to 20 years of experience, in performing their "legal duty" of providing liquidity. While we have hours to plan our attack, the Market Maker literally has a few seconds. In a normal  day, a market maker can do many thousands of trades. One can only be in awe of their skills. 

2. If you're interested in Options, try NOT approach it with a mindset or requirement of making money. This is not only NOT going to happen, but its a recipe for disaster. It's like a student of Medicine wanting to practice their skills after 2 months of study. To develop a meaningful batting average, you will need Time, Patience, and Perseverance. They don't develop overnight. Focus completely on the learning, ideally practicing on paper money accounts because you WILL LOSE at first. 

3) As someone that has self-learnt Options and through making mistakes from Trial and Error, I can tell you Options trading is not something you should take lightly. You will hear people talking of fantastic triple and quadruple digit returns. I'm here to be brutally honest with you - 

- Be very very careful in the first 12 months of Options trading. 

- This is when everyone is the most vulnerable to losing money. 

- Your main objective during this time is to focus on learning this craft and NOT lose (too much) money

Having said that, if you can get past the first 12 months and acquire the expertise in a Systematic manner with Systematic approaches to every situation, true financial independence awaits.

You can trade Options from anywhere in the world, regardless of how old you are. You never have to worry about job security any more because you have a skill that can produce consistent income month after month. 

But you have some serious but exciting work to do before you get there, and I'm here to help you in this journey. 

Watch my Free Mini-courses or my YouTube channel , all of which have the highest quality education in Options as well as Financial Markets.. 

And join me in my UDemy courses, where I share cutting-edge theoretical knowledge mixed with practical insights, strategy and impeccable execution approaches, through live trading examples. How do we know it's all this (don't just go by my word). Check what 25,000 students have to say in 2100 Reviews, with almost 2000 of them being 5-Star or 4-Star

If you have any questions at any time, please feel free to message me on Udemy.

The order to follow on my Udemy courses

Comprehensive guide to Financial Markets, Investing and Trading

Options Trading Beginners Bundle (3-course Bundle)

Advanced Options Concepts

Options spreads and credit spreads Bundle

Technical analysis and Chart reading Bundle

After this, the order does not matter. You can take any of the courses as per your interest.